The Packers Begin To Unravel
It sure looks like the Packers aren’t reaching the playoffs this season. They still can, but a lot needs to happen at this point to give them a chance that frankly, they don’t deserve right now. If you had told me at the beginning of the season that the Packers don’t look like a playoff team, I would have wondered how Rodgers got hurt. But unlike previous years…Rodgers seems to be a decent reason why. But I’ll get to that.
For most of the last decade it seems like the general consensus on the Pack was that they were a mediocre team, even a bad team, without Rodgers. Rodgers is the savior. The Packers, as long as they had Rodgers under center, were playoff and Super Bowl contenders. It was almost clockwork. The Packers start slow, Rodgers runs the table. Rodgers breaks his collarbone mid-season…it’s okay, he comes back and leads the Pack to a must win clinching of the division over the Bears. Rodgers is a miracle. For my money, he was the best QB in the game. I didn’t think anyone was better. He just struggled to reach the top past 2010 because one player, even arguably the best current player at the most vital position, can’t carry a whole team that far.
That miracle ability to win masked a problematic team and it makes you wonder how good this Packers team could have been if they spent the past 8 years with better coaches. With a better GM, making better picks and free agency pickups. Rodgers and his magnificent displays of football prowess kept a lot of people employed past their due date. In the past couple seasons, the cracks have finally broken through and the damage is being felt.
Mike McCarthy sucks. Well, maybe that’s too harsh. He’s not a good coach though, especially at this point. His gameplans seem terrible and it shows big time whenever the star is out. They never seem to use runningbacks even when the run game is working. He can’t make adjustments. The defense has taken a step forward this year, but mostly because they’ve been held back by Dom Capers for so long. They still aren’t amazing, but they are a little better. The strain on them is getting worse though since the offense is faltering.
Most shockingly of all though, it appears Rodgers ability to pull miracles out of his ass is no longer an asset but a detriment. It’s almost as if all the praise for the past decade has gone to his head. Rodgers doesn’t take the chunk plays, he tries to hit a home run all the time. He doesn’t move the ball methodically. He can still lead this team to success because he’s still amazing, but he’s not taking the easy road at all anymore. Brett Kollmann, A guy I watch on youtube who I thoroughly recommend for you x’s and o’s nerds does a better job explaining all my points here.
Brees and Brady are much better at taking what is being given to them. Brees has gladly taken a step back to let Alvin Kamara take charge in recent seasons and doesn’t try to hit home runs all the time, even though he totally can. Brady has always excelled at ball matriculation and taking the easiest plays to keep things going. His sheer efficiency at it is one of the reasons the Patriots are fucking boring. They operate for efficiency. Each play is purposefully planned set up the next sequence. Rodgers is more fun to watch because half the time it looks like everything broke and he still pulled it off (Russell Wilson is just as fun to watch for the same reasons).
So for the first time in years, even with Rodgers, the Packers look very mortal. If the downslide continues I think Mike McCarthy is probably gone as his failings at coach have been under fire for a few seasons. If the Packers once again pull off a miracle and make the playoffs, I actually think that might be a bad thing. They’ll always be contenders with Rodgers, but another year in the playoffs likely keeps jobs in place, and the problems which have led to this point will continue to not be properly addressed. Rodgers doesn’t have that many seasons left, especially with how often he gets hurt. They need to take some drastic steps to try and capitalize on him before he’s gone.
EDIT: 3 days after posting the Packers have lost, at home, to the Arizona Cardinals, their worst home upset loss in 40 years
EDIT 2: AND THEY FIRED FAT MIKE
I think this is part of a larger problem with the NFL and its obsession with quarterback play: teams have convinced themselves that the miracle drug for a super bowl win is an Elite Quarterback. Frankly, history has shown time and time again that Elite Quarterbacks make the playoffs and then lose to Good Quarterbacks with better teams. the Packers are suffering for this philosophy right now, and every crappy bottom feeder team has been suffering for this philosophy for years by drafting a quarterback in the first round with zero support and then being shocked when he does not perform at the same level he did in college.
I really loved the video you linked and as much as I hate the Patriots they are the perfect example of what it looks like when you reject this fantasy of an elite quarterback carrying you to victory. As truly exceptional as Tom Brady is, a large part of why he has as many rings as he does is because the offense is set up in a manner where you don’t need a Tom Brady to succeed.
Not to mention you have expansion teams that should have no business in drafting a QB due to what they had due to being well, new. As a result you have a QB prospect who gets pummeled to death and he gets blamed for not being a miracle worker, like what happened to Tim Couch where he gets labelled as bust when in reality even Brady would have look like crap behind that line.
Even as an Eagles fan, I have to subscribe to this view.
Last years Superbowl was 2 exceptional Teams yet the “GOAT” Quarterback lost to a Good Quarterback, because whilst both were pretty evenly matched, a single interception and a few dropped passes were the difference between winning and losing. The quality on both sides was great but the Eagles had more balance (Ill accept this is a Biased opinion) which won out.
I think your analysis is correct, but not because the Patriots pursued a GOAT qb to the detriment of the rest of the team. Brady takes 1/2-2/3 of what he should be paid, and that money allows the Patriots to accumulate a number of mid-range players which allow the team to stay at a consistently high level.
It’s not an accident that five of the eight current first place teams have QBs on rookie deals.
It’s really hard though to keep your team competitive when you draft in the bottom 5 for a decade, which makes the Patriots’ run even more remarkable.
This is the first season I can honestly say I have looked at Aaron Rodgers and thought “This guy is actually hurting his team”.
The focus on Rodgers being a miracle worker has resulted in there being a lack of investment in other key areas. Devante Adams has become the WR1 but beneath that, an aging Randall Cobb is about it. Jimmy Graham arrived already past his best, and Aaron Jones has only just started to emerge as a good quality RB who again, he little depth behind him and may be a one season wonder.
Defensively they have regressed year after year. Losing HHCD was bad, but the only thing of note that D has done in the last 3 years was appear in Pitch Perfect 2 playing themselves and singing Bootylicious (to retort on that last point, yes, others Offenses are ready and they can handle it when they face GB).
The last person they drafted in the 1st round you could reasonably say has made the grade is HHCD, and he’s gone along with Demarious Randall. As you say Dave, they focus so hard on keeping Rodgers by offering him huge contracts but if he did a Brady, took a reduced contract so the team could focus on bringing in other key players (and lets face it, between State Farm and Endorsements, he actually doesnt need much in the way of Salary) and the team could compete on a level where they dont need to rely on him.
Maybe thats his thing though. He wants the focus to be on him, he wants to be “The guy” in GB, and thats hurting his team. He wants the big contract because he doesnt want to get Manninged in his later years. He has way too much influence on the team away from the field, and that, as we’ve seen many many times, always becomes detrimental to the franchise.
I still predict he will be the GM there before he hits 50. GB cant live without him on or off the field.
I agree on most things but the Tom Brady reduced contracts is bullshit I wish people would stop spouting. First Brady isn’t as selfless as people think. His salary is low as he’s been restructuring to keep his dead money high and his cap hit low since the beginning of the decade – entirely understandable considering Bellichick. Also, his wife makes more money in a year than most players make in their whole career, which allows him to make that choice. Other players don’t have that luxury so they have to go for it. Teams won’t pay their medical bills the moment they retire and playing football professionally makes them uninsurable so they need every cent they can get. Also teams find ways to work with the cap if their GM or finance guy is worth a lick.
Agreed good sir. Taking discounts is bad, get what you are worth because the league doesn’t care about you.
That said, we need to find a way to lower QB salaries over time because they really are a problem when one player is taking up half the cap.
I’m a little late to this party, but this is my favorite soapbox…
“Taking discounts is bad” (Agree!)
“We need to lower QB salaries” (huh?)
If QBs are getting what they are worth and its taking up half the payroll, the clear answer is to… increase the payroll! Obviously that would take competent bargaining from the players, the likes of which we haven’t seen before. If we want better football, gotta let teams pay the players what they’re worth.
“he’s been restructuring to keep his dead money high and his cap hit low since the beginning of the decade”
If this were true, his dead cap number by now would be astronomical, and it’s not. Brees’ dead cap number is way higher than Brady’s, for example. Frickin’ Case Keenum has a higher contract than Brady right now.
And using Brady’s wife is BS, most of the current crop of QBs will end with career earnings in excess of $200 million. “I have to feed my family” is crap when you earn that kind of money. The fact is, most QBs are more interested in making as much as they can than winning.
Most QBs are interested in both, honestly. But that doesn’t change the fact that they have, at best, 15-20 year careers. Once you make it past the first 5 years, you have basically 10 years to get as much cash as you can. The smart play, therefore, is to grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.
I disagree with Dave about taking discounts being bad; if some player places a higher value on winning as opposed to making a few million more per year (and again, that’s a value not to be sneezed at), then they can make that choice and it can have payoffs in terms of wins (Elway, 1998; Brady, 2010s). But grabbing as much money as possible is simply the smart, rational choice in a marketplace.
It’s revealed preference: it doesn’t mean players don’t want to win, but it means they want to be paid as much as possible more.
(By way of comparison, it’s generally agreed that top CEOs are paid more than they’re worth [although how much more is a matter of debate]. They get paid this much because they can negotiate this much and because they often DO improve a company’s performance. I believe this is similar to the QB situation in the NFL: great QBs are overpaid unless they choose to take a haircut [as mentioned above], but they certainly improve a team’s performance even if they’re overpaid for this performance. [Imagine the Rams were playing their backup instead of Goff, or the Saints playing their backup instead of Brees; suddenly, the outlook for those teams is much less rosy.])
Got a like from me for the Pink Floyd reference.
Tom Brady hasn’t taken a paycut. He’s the 4th highest paid player in league history (1 Payton, 2 Eli, 3 Brees) and the Pats coaches think they can win without him, which isn’t provable, but a relavant bargaining point. Hes only made $3 mill less than Brees and $22 mill less than Eli which can be chalked up to draft positioning.
Look at their current deals. Brady’s average per year ranks 21st among qbs, the only starters making less than Brady are all on their roookie deals. This year, at age 41, is the first time in his career his cash for any season hit $20 mil.
Eli is a mediocre qb who got lucky twice in the superbowls. Based on performance, how do you justify him making $20+ million more than Brady in 4 less years? It’s not all due to his rookie deal.
Brees is on a 2 year, $50 mil deal, Brady is on a 2 year, $30 mil deal.
Not saying Brady is starving, but considering his on-field performance he has been taking way less than top-of-the-market contracts for a long time. Flacco signed a 6 year, $120m deal in 2013. In the six years since 2013 Brady has pocketed around $86 million. Who would you rather have had on your team for those 6 years?
From reading this, it makes me wonder if he’s trying to be the new Brett Favre?
And becoming the new Rex Grossman?
Actually – I thinks Rodgers is partly to blame. The only reason we all think McCarthy is the sole issue is because Rodgers is whiny and pouty – and the media has taken hold of this “internal fighting” story. His offense is partly the reason for Rodgers early success, and maybe he hasn’t evolved with the game, but Rodgers throws haven’t looked right either.
I also think that losing Jordy Nelson was a bigger deal than people realize. Did you know that Rodgers passer rating is 110.0+ when Nelson plays, and a 128 when targeting Nelson. His passer rating drops below 88.0 when Nelson hasnt played (not including this year).
As a Bears fan, I love it
hahahaha
You do know that the QB can’t talk to the coach via radio, right? It’s one way only.
This might be the most pedantic comment I’ve gotten in quite some time
That’s not what Mike McCarthy’s handwriting looks like. 😛
do a strip on PED antics, and the comments will flow. so many high falutin sports pharmacists read your strip, you’d better get it right.
YOU TELL HIM I SAID FUCK HIM!
come for the comics, stay for the pedantry
Same.
sir! this is a family site!
oh! pedANTRY!
Brett Kollmann is one of the two people I listen to when it comes to sports analysis. The other is Samuel Gold, who is also on YouTube and somebody I would recommend to you. It’s like listening to an actual scout rather than the TV personalities you get that are much less thorough.
Agreed. always great analysis
I think that it is necessary to note though, that everybody seems to have forgotten about the roughing the passer calls earlier in the season. I mean, if Matthews doesn’t get that call against the Vikings, the packers have a win, and against the Redskins. I think there was a third bogus one in the early season there two. But my point is that that is definitely 1 game, to possibly three games that the packers have been screwed out of because of that bogus roughing the passer controversy early in the season. Imagine if the packers had won not gotten called for the vikings and redskins hit, and that both of those games result in wins, the packers and the vikings are now both at 6-5, with the packers controlling their own destiny. And who knows what would have happened if Ty Montgomery wasn’t a complete idiot and took a knee? the packers could have been sitting at 7-5 right now. The packers haven’t gotten any outside help this year from the refs or the league.
Great job Dave you got McCarthy fired. He has kids to feed I think
The packers owe him like 2 years left on his contract, he can take a vacation. Also Mike McCarthy’s kids look like they’re 40.
Apparently this was the Cardinals’ first win in Lambeau since, like, 1949 or something.
At least Fat Mike got that monkey off Arizona’s back as his final act, heh.
“Introducing the next coach of the Cleveland Broooooooooowns…. Mike “No Ears” McCarthy!!!!”
(wakes up in cold sweat)
Dear God, no! The front office guys know him. They should know better than anyone to stay away.