The Draft Pick Nobody Expected
In my 11 years of actually following the draft for my yearly little project, this is by far the strangest pick I’d ever witnessed. Some picks are bad at the time and never end up good, like Daniel Jones! Some picks are bad in hindsight, like Trey Lance. Some picks are just clear reaches, when a team overdrafts a guy they could have had a round later. I’ve never seen a pick that felt like it just didn’t make any sense before. None of this confusion or criticism that the Falcons are getting is about Penix the prospect. I think if a number of other teams (Like, the Vikings or Broncos) had taken Penix at 8 nobody would be all that bothered. But the Falcons? What the fuck?
The next morning when I logged into my day job slack my ATL co-worker said the Falcons “got the steal of the draft”. I choked on the water I was sipping and had to stand up and pace around the office for a second. Firstly, overdrafting a mid-first round at best-rated QB with the 8th overall pick when you already had a QB that you paid big bucks on the roster is the opposite of a steal. It’s a luxury pick reach. You know who got a steal? The Bears, when Odunze fell to them at 9. Or the Colts, who got to pick the first defender off the board at pick 15.
Over the course of the next hour the discussion between that co-worker and several of us went as expected if you read any of the discourse following the pick. There are many different justifications for it, but they all sort of require you to deliberately place the pick in a certain light, to ignore the very obvious nonsense in front of you. To rationalize it as hard as possible away from being the very obvious bonkers choice it was. So let’s attack some of these arguments starting with the big question everyone was asking themselves when it happened. Why did the Falcons break the bank for Kirk Cousins 2 months ago to presumably be the starting QB and then immediately draft his replacement with the 8th overall pick? What the fuck? What on earth is the goal here?
The goal is to have Kirk’s replacement immediately ready to go once Kirk’s time is up.
Okay…other teams have drafted QBs to sit behind their current starter while they wait in line for the throne. It has worked out, in the case of Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love, and did not work out in the case of Trey Lance. But there are differences here. One, Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith, a player who had been on the Chiefs for several years already and was getting up there in age, and didn’t appear to be the guy. Jordan Love was a massive project who was never expected to start right off the bat, and more importantly, the Packers only picked him back at pick 22. Trey Lance was expected to take over for Garoppolo, who had clearly reached his ceiling. Even Daniel Jones got drafted while Eli was still on the roster. But The Falcons are not gearing up to replace an old hat like Rodgers or Smith or Eli. They just signed Kirk Cousins. They probably tampered to get him and will probably get punished for it!
They went all in on Kirk Cousins, giving him a massive 90 million guaranteed for at least two years. What kind of a message does this send to Kirk? He was given the keys and then right in front of him they handed a second set of keys to the hottie there to take his job at any second. I wonder how that makes him feel? It can’t be good! Kirk’s actually been in this situation in reverse, when he was drafted in the 4th behind RG3. He was confused then, going to a team that seemed like it half believed in him, and now after he felt like he found a home to finish his career, the Falcons instantly undermine that trust and spend what could have been a very valuble pick on someone to help Kirk win now on the very player waiting on Kirk’s ending.
Kirk is coming off an Achilles tear and is 35 years old, and he needs a backup
True! Kirk is old and coming off a traditionally very devastating injury. It is not out of possibility that Penix will start a game or more in the next two years. Then why on earth did the Falcons go out, tamper, and then give Cousins a hefty bag of at least 90 million guaranteed dollars? Why shell out for a guy you expect to not be ready and need a backup for? No, that’s the kind of money you give a guy you expect to start. Signing Kirk was a win-now move. The Falcons are in a weak division and not far away from competing, QB was the biggest need they had.
Drafting Penix was not a win-now move, it was a future planning move. These two moves do not work together. They feel like different philosophies clashing. The Patriots entire offseason has been future planning in a way that makes sense. Sign a journeyman (Brissett) to carry the team for now but who is clearly not the future, and groom his successor on the bench with Maye. If you want to set yourselves up for the future, don’t shell out 90 million dollars against the cap for 2 years for a franchise level QB. If you want to win now while the division window is open, don’t waste the 8th overall pick on a player you expect nothing meaningful from for at least 2 seasons. What the fuck are the Falcons doing?
Also, as far as injury concerns go, let’s not forget that injury history was literally Penix’s main red flag.
The Falcons wont have an opportunity to draft this high again so they have to get their guy now
This was the argument straight from the GM’s mouth in the post-draft presser. That feels like cope to me. I really have to wonder when they fell in love with Penix during the draft process. It feels almost like they went all in on Kirk Cousins and then fell in love with Penix somehow and changed plans. They didn’t seem to be in on Penix during the draft process. They didn’t work him out like other teams did. They didn’t seem to show much interest. Nobody had the Falcons taking Penix, most people had them taking a defender or trading down. Penix himself didn’t seem to expect it either. If they knew they wanted Penix from early on, the Kirk deal was very stupid. If they decided they wanted Penix much later in the process then you have to wonder if the team actually has a good plan in place at all if they can just make wild changes at a whim.
No one will care if Penix ends up good
This is the truest cope of any fan after their team makes a questionable draft pick. Because it’s true. If Penix turns into a star, then this move was a good decision in the end and all of us chucklefucks are idiots. I liked Penix as a prospect. I wanted the Giants to draft him! I think he’s pro-ready and that his age is not as big a deal as many have made it out to be. Of course, if Penix ends up good, the Kirk deal looks dumber because you had Penix right there at the start. If Penix is pro-ready and age doesn’t mean much, why is he sitting on the bench like a developmental prospect? By the time the Falcons can move on from Kirk, he will be at least 26. Not to mention the fact that the rookie QB salary is one of the most valuable salaries in the sport. Half of Penix’s cheap rookie contract will be wasted while paying Kirk Cousins instead.
No matter how this turns out this move was extremely weird and caught us all off-guard for a reason. The Falcons (probably) tampered to get Kirk Cousins on their roster and may suffer punishment for it, shelled out a huge bag for him, and then turned around and immediately drafted his successor before Kirk had even put on the uniform. It’s hard to look at that right now and not wonder what the fuck the Falcons were thinking. If it works out good for them. If it doesn’t, this goes down as an all-timer blunder.
How did your team do this draft? I give the Giants draft a B-. I like it less the more I think about it. We bought a sports car for our offense that’s driven by a ford pinto. We stocked up on secondary help (which we needed) but then drafted a TE to presumably replace the likely retiring Waller and then some depth picks. No investment in the trenches at all and it looks like Daniel Jones is the guy again. Maybe the 6th year will work out? Maybe the 7th? Am I doomed to watch Daniel Jones for eternity? At least the Falcons have quarterbacks worth liking.
New theory here: the Falcons drafted Penix because they think Kirk may get suspended for his involvement in the tampering and they want a QB to cover the suspension. Still stupid to draft one this high when they could’ve signed an FA, stayed with Heinicke as a backup to cover that, or arguably gotten Bo Nix in the 2nd round.
I didn’t bother to watch the draft but when all my friends told me about the pick I didn’t even flinch cause that’s just what the Falcons do lately. The Falcons are extremely good at spending their first round picks on guys that they barely use. My guess is that this is the latest in a disturbing trend of offensive waste.
I have a (completely uninformed, very speculative) theory about this pick based off of a single clip I saw circulating online of Arthur Blank grilling his GM in the War Room right after the pick was made: Signing Kirk Cousins was an ownership decision. The FO likely wanted a QB in the draft of any type, and were willing to wait and settle on whoever they got (Penix, McCarthy, etc.). Meanwhile, Arthur Blank wanted a veteran QB in the offseason who could put the team in win-now mode since he–and the fanbase as a whole–are likely tired of the consistent 7-10 finishes every year. The FO caved and brought in Kirk, but somewhere down the line said, ‘F it. We’re gonna do what WE wanted to do all along.’ and took Penix anyway once he dropped to them. Maybe their plan was to move on from Kirk ASAP barring him winning a Super Bowl or coming close and they knew they needed to still get their QBOTF if they were going to do that and not look like complete idiots.
Does this theory (obviously) have a bunch of holes? Yes, but, I mean shit, you try to rationalize using a Top 10 pick on a soon-to-be 24 year old QB with injury concerns that presumably won’t start until he’s 27 at the earliest and 28 if Kirk Cousins plays the duration of his contract.
Oh, and to answer the last question, I can’t really say much about the Pats draft. Ultimately, the success of the class hinges on Drake Maye. I loved him as a prospect and I expect him to be the franchise QB they need, but it all comes down to the team investing in him and building a good roster around him. If they can’t do that in the long-term, nothing else they did with this class matters.
It’s definitely a possibility, there’s no mistaking Arthur Blank had a “WTF ARE YOU DOING??” look about him. But if true? Holy gods, that would make the Falcons FO the biggest bunch of absolute morons that ever moroned, and if I were Blank, I would fire the entire bunch of them on the spot and call back Belichick, because I would rather take a 70+ year old out-of-touch guy like him over a bunch of complete clowns willing to do something THAT stupid.
“Hey, so the owner just signed a $90m qb, but let’s just draft the guy we want in the first round and hide it from him! He doesn’t need to kno- ohhhhhhh crap, it’s televised! Oh noooo, he’s standing right behind us! OH NOOOOES!”
As a Steelers fan I’m happy as a pig in shit. We picked up two badly needed pieces for our offensive line, a good slot receiver that we also badly needed, and a somewhat-risky-but-high-ceiling LB in the first three rounds. Then we filled out some additional line depth on both sides of the ball in the later rounds. The only thing we didn’t address was our need for another CB.
Hard to be anything other than pleased when the front office is directly addressing the team’s needs and getting good value in the process.
“No one will care if Penix ends up good”
This isn’t true about the other half – they gave Kirk Cousins 100 million dollars. It’s a no-win situation. If Penix is a stud the Kirk Cousins signing looks dumb.
Can’t say much about the Dolphins’ draft. They needed a. line help and they took a d-lineman and an d-lineman with their first two picks. I’m a bit nervous because these guys apparently need coaching up and Dolphins’ line coaching has been suspect since before Bullygate, but they went after needs and the more polished prospects were gone.
Shoot didn’t mean to reply. This is why I hate doing this on mobile
If AR15 can stay healthy, then I feel real good about the Colts draft class. Quality defender? Two solid WRs beside Pittman? Maybe it’s a stretch, but at least on paper it’s the solidest Colts roster in quite some time
Anthony Richardson does not like that nickname.
Atlanta’s pick is being its out of the ordinary. It was a luxury pick when Atlanta couldn’t afford a luxury pick. When you’re drafting #8, you have issues that needs addressed. If someone took your pick, choose someone else. If everyone on your draft board is under where you are, trade down and pick up more picks.
As a Bengals fans, I’m cautiously optimistic. While it could’ve been better as at moments it seems like other teams were drafting directly from the Bengals draft board, we did pick up players that could help in both the short and long term. WR and TE seemed to be ignored a bit, but the most important thing last season showed was to protect Joe Burrow at all costs.
Now all we need to do is develop them and we’re set. (Narrator: The Bengals stick at developing players.)
I really like the way you put it “a luxury pick when they couldn’t afford a luxury pick”. I can understand some of the thinking for preparing for the future…but with a QB who’s ALREADY 24 years old? It would be one thing too if they were a QB away from winning, but Atlanta isn’t picking in the top 10 just because they didn’t have a franchise guy. They had a pretty abysmal defense with, like, 2-3 guys who are even worth anything. They had a league worst run defense last year for crying out loud! We’ve seen this movie before with Kirk, that was his first couple of seasons in MN! He played okay, but couldn’t dig the team out of the holes put there by an atrocious defense.
I’m really hoping the Giants have another playoff game winning season or a failure of one so we can end the Jones talk one way or the other. Giants people are either hoping he’ll look good again or hating on him and it’s killed so much discourse about the Giants over the last year and a half.
Agree on the Penix decision. Dave, you mentioned the tampering above which was a big part. One other argument I saw a few places was the Falcons picked Penix was to lock in a future QB as they are worried they’ll lose upcoming draft picks due to the tampering.
I know that everybody was weirded out with the Penix pick, but considering that Dallas turner fell all the way to 17th when he was a top 10 talent makes me think there are character concerns, injury history we don’t know, and some other things that put the Falcons off with him. So then when the Falcons were not drafting him for some mysterious reason they got to the point that Stunkei made where ownership probably wanted Kirk and the team wanted Penix.
As a Falcons fan I have no idea why we are obsessed with finding the next Michael Vick. Until we stop this obsession we may never truly ever get over the hump of always being a competitive team.
Not even Nobody expected this draft pick
I had Penix as our pick, albeit with a trade down. Seeing the run of QB’s right after us I think they had to pick him at 8. QB (and HC) has been our issue the last 2 years I cannot fault Fontenot from making this pick. Falcon’s have the easiest projected schedule this coming year, in a weak division. Odds are we are not drafting high if Kirk even plays average. Factoring in we may lose a pick for tampering I agree that we may not be in a position to actually get a QB the next couple years.
I liked Penix the player and to me it seems like solid roster building to have a good cheap player as a backup. If it were any other position needing a high round backup, nobody would bat an eye. If he sits for three years which is what I think is likely, we get two affordable (for a QB) years to determine if he is the guy. That is also three years to see if you think he is a Jordan Love or a Trey Lance. Either way it sets the team up for long term success.
The only real loser in all of this is Penix, you have to feel for the kid. The moment of dreams to get drafted top 10 only for everyone to crap on you because of the team that picked you. Hopefully though ten years from now he can say it was worth it.
No one is shitting on Penix, it’s ALL on the Falcons Org at this point. And you’re literally arguing Dave’s third point, even if that’s true, the Falcons knew this and still blew 100 mil on a guy who is now pissed at them. And he’s gonna be 27 at the end of those three years, whereas Jordan Love was 24 when he took the reins. This is pure copium.
Penix is not getting crap for who he is as a player but literally zero of the the press has been positive for him or his future. That’s why I say it sucks for him.
Also, how is it coping if it was literally the pick I would have made? The Falcons will be good enough to compete now and are prepared for the future. A 27 year old qb gives me zero hesitation. Realistically we should get ten years of starting out of him. Kirk is a grown man he should be able to handle a rookie on the bench.
> I agree that we may not be in a position to actually get a QB the next couple years.
But you just paid Kirk Cousins! You could have had Justin Fields for basically free, too. This is such a weird take. QBs don’t HAVE to come from the draft, and your team literally just proved that. Not to mention the greatest QB of all time was a 6th round pick.
> it seems like solid roster building to have a good cheap player as a backup.
But he wasn’t cheap, in terms of draft capital. Most teams are expecting starters out of their 1st, 2nd, maybe even 3rd round picks.
> A 27 year old qb gives me zero hesitation. Realistically we should get ten years of starting out of him.
Yeah, lets draft the 24 year old mobile QB who is the very definition of a “start now” player and waste 2-4 years of his prime benching him behind Kirk Cousins. Jordan Love was a raw project who needed to sit, Penix is about as complete as you can get, so that’s not a good reason either. I hope Penix pulls an Elway/Eli and gets traded.
> Kirk is a grown man he should be able to handle a rookie on the bench.
It’s not a maturity issue, it’s a trust issue. This isn’t like a Tommy Maddox to the Broncos or Rodgers and then Love to the Packers thing, in those cases Elway and Favre and Rodgers had already been playing for a while and maybe were getting a little bit too comfortable, Cousins hasn’t even put on a jersey and they’re already drafting his replacement. I would be livid if I were in the same position!
I don’t know which brain trust is making the final decisions in Atlanta, but talking themselves out of hiring Belichick and then talking themselves into a QB quagmire is why the Falcons are not a serious franchise.
Speaking of Bill and drafting poorly, I think the Pats first post-Bill draft went about as well as it could. They didn’t do anything dumb like taking JJ or MHJ or trading down, instead taking best QB on the board. I don’t watch nearly enough college ball to give a proper take on Maye, but he at least seems to have better arm strength, build, and throwing motion than the McCorkle/Zappe chimera. I though Mac was a steal, so I’m much quieter this go around. For the later rounds they mostly drafted O-Line and WR, which were the two biggest positions of need. RIP the backup long snapper from Navy jokes. Pats still lack a true WR1, but that’s been true since Wes Welker walked. Going to continue to greedily look at San Fran, you don’t need both Deebo and Aiyuk right?
As for my NFC team: It’s odd that the Bears have been drafting smart for the past few years, considering this is year 10 without an QB who could match the medium-low bar of Smoking Jay. I suppose outsourcing the tank to an even more incompetent team in Carolina is one way to do it. Falcons passing on Rome was the biggest gift they could have given Chicago, but my fears for the team are not personnel based but coaching related. Year 3 of the Eberflus era is starting with a new OC and DC, after the former was scapegoated and shitcanned and the later was pinched by the Feds for a crime(?) we still don’t know anything about. If his first choice handpicked guys aren’t it, why should his new coordinators be any different? After watching the bears screw up the first 2 years of Mitch and Fields with a lame duck coach, seeing the cycle repeat after watching *The Assassination of Mac Jones by the Coward Matt Patricia* is terrifying. Good drafting tho!
Michael Penix, Jr’s nickname should be Spanish Inquisition because nobody expected it.
Texans draft was pretty solid. Quiet, but solid. No complaints, and CJ got his favorite TE back. Hell, we needed a TE, so that’s fantastic.
The biggest thing for me was Bill going on Pat McAfee’s stream and having the time of his life breaking down all the players and telling stories from his time with the Patriots. It was like watching a completely different person; he was straight up ANIMATED talking about the Randy Moss trade! Then at the end of the first day he apparently sets up a weekly appearance on McAfee’s show on Mondays breaking down the week’s games. I don’t even care it’s Pat McAfee; I won’t care about any other part of his show except for Bill Belichick talking shop about football.
…damn, what if he becomes a guest on the Manningcast too! Could you just IMAGINE the banter of the two of them talking football with him?!
Accurate portrayal of Saints fan reaction
What the fuck