The Darnold Debate
Sam Darnold is a Panther now! Now we can continue to argue about him for at least another year. Was it Adam Gase’s fault and the Jets as a whole? Was it that Sam Darnold was overrated? The answer…is yes!
This feels like one of those dumb internet debates where I see both sides of the argument fighting with each other, seemingly unable to realize they more or less agree with each other, outside the fringe weirdos who still think Darnold is secretly Brady waiting to happen or that Darnold was and is a giant pile of irredeemable shit. I do not have a high opinion of Darnold but he’s also a very strong example of “the situation you get drafted into matters”. I am the centrist trash.
In keeping with the post I made about his draftmate Josh Rosen, lets look at how both sides are true and see what the future holds. Sam hasn’t been as screwed over as Rosen has, and he’s shown more flashes, but the extra time in the sun has also given us a better picture of how he sucks.
Does Sam Darnold suck? Sure seems like it. When Sam came out of college the small amount of hesitation around him revolved around poor decision making when under pressure and high turnovers. His experience in the NFL has done nothing to refute those worries. He was considered a big hot prospect but even the Browns decided to go with Baker instead, and have successfully built around him. Sam has had the reigns for 3 years and he’s never shown more than the occasional flash of what could be. Darnold looked worse than 2020 Joe Flacco on the same team. His numbers have gotten worse each season. Normally, after 3 years, you kinda have a decent enough picture of a QB. Ryan Tannehill, the poster boy for “surviving Adam Gase”, was never actually as bad as Sam Darnold has been. Tannehill was mediocre and people constantly expected him to break out every year for a reason. Darnold has been bad. Even with no weapons on a bad team, you can still see a good QB. Nobody thought Joe Burrow was awful this year despite not doing anything spectacular on a garbage team. Justin Herbert won offensive rookie of the year (rightfully) by being amazing on a bad team. Even Daniel Jones has looked better than Darnold so far and you won’t find many people saying he’s any good.
But to deny that the Jets hampered his development and put him in an impossible situation is impossible. Adam Gase was a terrible choice for HC from day one. The team was gutted and the franchise was a wasteland. It is almost a textbook example of how one guy can’t save a franchise. Jets fans acted like they just got Peyton Manning when they drafted Darnold and everything was gonna be okay. I remember the jokes. I REMEMBER, JETS. I don’t know how anyone could have survived the Jets of the past 3 seasons with a positive reputation.
Is Sam gonna be good in Carolina? My guess is no. Is Carolina a better place to be? Sure. Despite their record the Panthers were a tough out last year under Rhule and my opinion on him as a coach is pretty positive. Sam isn’t Teddy. Teddy is a safe boy who likes to treat the ball delicately and only give it a wee toss a few yards at a time. Sam Darnold gives no fucks and will huck that sucker. Hucking that sucker would have probably won the Panthers an extra couple of games last year. But the Panthers aren’t exactly contenders now and the squad around Darnold isn’t all that special. Robby Anderson is good and already works well with Sam, and CMC is good, but this isn’t a competing squad yet. I fully expect Sam to put up some more touchdowns but I feel like he’s going to keep throwing the ball to the other team anyway and still make bonehead decisions.
The biggest question is what is the Panthers plan? Teddy was an obvious first year regime stopgap and nobody would argue otherwise. Why did the Panthers go for Sam now, three weeks from the draft with multiple good QB prospects? Why not draft then trade? Is Sam the guy now in Carolina or are the Panthers just kicking the tires on him and seeing what to do next season? The joke answer is to start Sam all year to ensure they suck and get the next first overall pick but they aren’t that bad. I just don’t know what they are planning. I guess we shall see.
I honestly expect Carolina to finish 2nd place in the South… at 7-10 (I hate the 17th game) with Tampa winning the div at 11-6 (3 seed), Atlanta doing boring things at 5-12, and New Orleans imploding like the 94 Oilers at 3-14.
I just want to chime in to support hating the 17th game. There’s nothing good about it, unless you own one of the pockets being lined by it. Between that and the 7th playoff spot, get ready for some more mediocre 9-8 type teams who get just hot enough in a bad division to make a run for a crappy championship!
I think the Panthers and (especially) Falcons are due for a bounceback season next year. They had the two hardest schedules in the NFL (by football outsiders and pro-football-reference) because they had to play NO and TB twice, KC, and only 1 team from the NFC East. Next year they play the whole NFC East and the two worst teams from the AFC South (Texans and Jags) for their 17th game (ew). The Falcons put up a point differential of a .500 team, just 7 points worse than the 11-5 Browns. So they could end up 11-6 (yuck) or 12-5 (gross) by maintaining their current mediocrity and getting an easier schedule.
Apparently they picked up his option, and for the 2018 class it’s fully guaranteed, so I guess they’re planning on keeping him around at least through 2022.
It’s certainly an odd move by Carolina. I figured they were going for a more “plug and play” QB like Russell Wilson or draft a QB to sit behind Teddy until they want to start their guy.
The unfortunate problem with that is that by winning one extra game, Carolina fell from pick #4 to their current spot at pick #8.
Seeing the trade by SF to #3, Atlanta’s likely unwillingness to let them trade to #4, Cincinatti taking the best guy available at #5, and Miami trading back to #6, Carolina finds themselves settling for the fourth best QB in the draft (Likely Fields or Lance) instead of possibly convincing Miami or the Jets to let them trade to #2 or #3. Rather than gamble for the QB class of next year to be good, or that QB#4 is available and as good as Darnold is(n’t), they’ve hedged their bets on two years of hopefully decent QB play.
You bring up a good point about gambling on next years class being good or not. With how wonky this season was with covid, we’ll get 1 year of tape on them plus whatever they put up as a fr/so. Not exactly the best draft to be a qb needy team.
That, and while I’ll admit I don’t follow college much at all outside of my alma mater and bowl games, I can’t see next years group being as good as this years.
Burrow isn’t exactly the best comparison for Darnold. Sam had like… 1 1/2 weapons and a sole good lineman in Becton. Burrow had Green, Tate, Boyd, and Higgins. Who are all starting caliber recievers. Sure, Sam isn’t the best AN in the world. But he’s better than guys like Haskins or Rosen.
So… my opinions on all of this. I think that, like Dave, Sam’s struggling is a little bit of both sides, coming from an awful front office and coaching staff at the Jets, and his play. He hasn’t been good, heck he’s been terrible, especially when you look at the numbers compared to Joe Flacco. However, I am positive about the future as some of the highlights show glimpses of a great QB. Once again though, you have to ask if this potential will be reached, and I think partially. He certainly won’t be the next Brady but he will always be up there and good and maybe similar to a Ryan Tannehill or Derek Carr. To close out this whole rant though, I am asking the same questions Dave, why now. They picked up his fifth year option so ig we intend to keep him around but why now. Why so close to the draft with 5 great QB prospects, (including some sleepers like Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond), and still with Teddy on that huge overpaid contract. All of this being said, I am still super excited for next year, and this trade does open up the 8 spot to be a best player available kind of pick. I am interested to see how this trade will work out for both sides, and hope Sam can take us to the promise land sometime soon.
If Derek Carr is the best case scenario, we should try something else
Idk why people always hate on Derek Carr, like have you seen the stats? He put up 4,103 passing yards 27 TD’s and 9 picks with Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor, and Hunter Renfrow. I mean when you look at his career stat line he is consistently at that 4,000-yard mark with a good TD to Int ratio. I mean he is no Patrick Mahomes but he is always consistently good with a poor supporting cast.
PJ Tucker be like 🙁
Why now and not during the draft? I think it’s because the 49ers trade put them in a tough spot. Three quarterbacks are now gone, and if they thought only three of them are worth it then they need to wait until the first three picks are in to see if their guy is still there. What’s worse is that the Broncos need a QB, are picking right behind them, and the holder of the 4th pick is their division rival. If at any point the Broncos decide to jump the Panthers to the 4th pick, which they would if they’d be happy with any of 4 guys, that’s the Panthers’ worst case scenario. At this point trying to trade for any QB would become way more expensive, so if they get Sam Darnold not only does this not happen, it also means they’ll take away incentives for the Broncos to trade with the Falcons and giving them more picks.
As for Sam Darnold… eh. I’m kinda lukewarm about him. He hasn’t been impressive, but when I do comparisons I don’t do them with other people in other situations. Sam Darnold has been kind enough to miss games, which means we can actually see how others did in the same situation. Darnold’s record is 13-25, 45-39 TD-INT (3.7 TD% v 3.2 INT%), 6.6 Y/A, and a 59.8 Comp%. These are some truly horrible numbers, but let’s put them in proper context. The other Jets’ QBs have gone 0-10, 7-10 TD-INT (2.2 TD% v 3.1 INT%), 5.6 Y/A and 57 Comp%. What I get from this is that Darnold is far from being a great QB and may never become one, but he’s at least a decent starter with potential for more. Last year plenty of people thought Mayfield was on the fast track to Bustville and now he’s given the Browns their first playoff win since they came back (I think). I don’t know that Darnold can ever be Allen, but Mayfield seems like an attainable goal.
Also, the plan seemed to be Deshaun Watson but then the last month happened
I for one would like to acknowledge that the “Thank you Giants” crowd will be the same people who will crown Saleh as Bill Parcels when we finish at 8-9. Anyway, Zack Wilson is my new best friend now
“What is the plan” is what i’ve been asking myself from day 1. THis franchise has no direction. They seem to think that they’re a qb away from competing when they’re just…not. I didn’t mind the flier on darnold BECAUSE we have teddy who is also fine. An overpay, but fine. But if they trade him, am I comfortable making darnold the guy? Hell no. And they shouldn’t be either.
We’re a top 10 QB away from competing. Sam Darnold is barely top 30 currently.
Why not the Jets in general? Their overall track records with B development have been questionable. One can get the feeling that had they drafted Marino, they would have turn him into a bust. Something about the Jets seems kind of jinxed when it comes to QB after Namath. Maybe someone in the organization did made a deal with the devil for SB III win and this is the trade off.
*QB development.
I think Darnold is a starter in this league and potentially a good one. I think he has been the victim of Gase and the Jets
Watchu mean he’s too ugly to be a star? You had a comic a long time ago all about goober QBs and how you can only be good if you’re a goober!
Nah, don’t know how anyone can be in the “Darnold hampered the Jets” camp. Dude got screwed with coaching. Multiple OCs, stuck with Gase who most fans agreed was a shit hire from day 1, Greg Williams probably encouraging his guys to tear Darnolds ACL in practice. No real threats for weapons…. Jets top rusher last year was a trillion year old Frank Gore for petes sake.