The Bortles Effect
I’ve talked about this phenomenon in other posts but wanted to give it its own thing here so I could have a solid, defined reference point to link back to when I inevitably bring it up again. The NFL year is nothing if not cyclical.
There are plenty of reasons I’m not a fan of draft season. Today I’d like to discuss one of them. It is a problem caused by the very nature of the beast, the repetitive nature of the draft itself and the compounding problems of the 24/7 news cycle. I call it The Bortles Effect, mostly just because he was the first time I ever really noticed this phenomenon. You could name it a number of things, but Bortles is objectively the funniest name so that’s what we are going with.
Every year, by the end of the college season usually, we have the obvious top QB prospects in the draft class. It is either one clearly standing out above all others or between a couple guys. This year for example, the top QB prospect is basically an argument between Stroud or Young. These top prospects are basically THE GUYS for months on end, and once the combine ends and mock draft scout season truly enters it’s runaway train phase, the hype has been…exhausted.
There’s only so much anyone, even the biggest draft nerd, can write about the same dudes. There are only so many articles and videos the average consumer can stand to read on the same dudes. It’s perfectly understandable that in this era where content must be put out constantly and eyeballs equal dollars that after a certain point, people will crave something new. As a consumer, I want to read about dudes I haven’t heard about yet. As a writer, I imagine these draft guys want to look at other players too. Unfortunately this fatigue and desire for freshness has generated easily predictable trends. After people run out of ways to call the top guys the top guys, people get weird and fall in love with the potential of more flawed prospects.
This usually happens after a dude has a good combine or pro day. That’s why you can be reading articles about the usual prospects and then suddenly a mock draft shows up with a name you barely know in the top 5. Scouts are desperate to find something new to fawn over so they start falling in love with more flawed prospects. This year it was always going to be Anthony Richardson or Will Levis. Turns out it is Richardson. At least for now, even Levis still has time to randomly rise. Even Hendon Hooker has gotten undeserved attention as a first-rounder by some clickbaiters. Richardson is the prototypical dream for these situations: the deeply flawed but physically gifted guy with all the right tools who the messy girl at the bar thinks she can fix. Spoiler alert: she probably can’t. History hasn’t been particularly kind to the physical himbo QB prospect outside one notable exception we will get to.
This effect reaches actual NFL teams. Draft scouts have an influence on GMs and you can almost trace a lot of these overdrafts back to when the scouts started fawning over them because they ran out of things to say about the obvious top guys. Sometimes this even manages to hurt one of the consensus top prospects. Justin Fields spent most of his time being the de-facto #2 guy behind Trevor Lawrence until suddenly, out of nowhere, this dork from BYU was suddenly being discussed as possibly the best QB in the draft. Fields was the 4th QB overall, behind Lawrence, Zach “Milf Hunter” Wilson, and Trey Lance, another physical specimen drafted on potential. We still don’t have definitive answers on Fields or Lance yet, but Wilson was obviously a massive mistake.
Before him, we had Mitchell Trubisky. Patrick Mahomes was not a perfect prospect at the time (A lot of speculation on whether his game could translate before we knew it would) but he was a better prospect than Mitch Trubisky, who also came out of nowhere to suddenly be the best prospect in the draft…for some reason. It didn’t work out. Before him, we had Bort himself. A guy most people only knew for having a hot girlfriend suddenly shot up scouting boards and got taken 3rd overall. Bort had a decent career all things considered but he was never a great QB and 2017, in hindsight, was a miracle fluke year for the Jaguars.
So now let’s talk about the elephant in the room: Josh Allen. You could even name this entire phenomenon “Chasing Josh Allen”. Allen was kind of this guy. He was from a small school, was deeply flawed in college, but he had all the physical traits you’d want in a QB. Did it work out? Yes! Is it maybe more complicated than that? Yes! Allen at #7 overall was not a highly regarded pick and for 2 years didn’t really prove anyone wrong. He wasn’t bad, but he was mostly a talented physical runner who wasn’t great at throwing the ball accurately or making decisions. But the Bills did everything right to actually turn the himbo QB into a genuine elite-level talent. It gave credence to the long-held theory of taking the physically gifted guy you can mold over the Teddy Bridgewater type of smart but limited. But now every draft dork out there wants to be the guy who gets to yell “CALLED IT” on the next Josh Allen, which is why I think so many of them are starting to hype up Richardson. Richardson is an undeniable athletic freak, but I’ve mostly seen Florida fans laughing at the idea of him as a top prospect.
The Bortles Effect is not exclusively a QB phenomenon but it just tends to be the most obvious with QBs. Travon Walker from last year was in many ways Bortled: a raw physical talent that wasn’t ranked too highly for most of the draft season until suddenly he was a big deal flashing POTENTIAL and he went first overall. Luke Joeckel was the far and away best lineman prospect for months in 2013 and then suddenly Eric Fisher Bortled him (and that ended up being the correct move by KC). EJ Manuel Bortled Geno Smith in that same draft. It was a weak year for QBs but Geno was the top guy for months and suddenly discussions over Manuel took over and the Bills took him.
So much goes into whether or not a guy makes it in the NFL and for the most part we really can’t judge them until they actually enter the league, which is part of why all this nonsense every year is so exhausting. It’s nothing but speculation for months, driven by a constant need for new content during a long downtime. I hate this time of year.
Discussion (27) ¬
Did you know that Blake Bortles retired? An era has come and gone
I remember when Jason Pierre Paul was just such a raw talent… back in the days before he turned his hand into raw meat.
It’s funny, I don’t follow the draft at all, I don’t read any articles, I don’t learn any names. But I do listen in on draft night, which usually ends with me staring blankly at the screen, clueless entirely as to whether NYG scored a haul or pooped the bed. It does help mitigate my irrational rage, though. So I got that going for me… which is nice.
A few years ago I was watching the draft and my football illiterate husband asked me who won. I said we’d have to wait until the season started.
Josh Allen was such a Bortles pick that many Bills fans, myself included, hated it and wished they had gone with Rosen
Dave did a comic about it.
Mostly with the sheer number of times we’ve seen it fail, I have to give credit to the Bills brass for not screwing it up at QB for the first time I can remember (I was born in the Kelly era). They preached patience while they got bad contracts off the books. They didn’t yank him at the first sign of trouble. And right now out of Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen and Lamar Jackson, Allen is the only still under contract with his original team.
Yeah, given this franchise’s track record it’s a miracle we got Josh to where he is.
Of course, now they have to give him an actual offensive line and some new receivers.
Agreed. The lack of effort in improving the running game, OL, or WRs except the trade for Diggs has been frustrating. If Josh has to keep running the ball, he’s got a short career ahead of him. The QB should not be, but was, the leading rusher in 10 of the 18 games Buffalo played last year.
I was pleased Buffalo didn’t pay for OBJ’s giant contract since that should mean more funds for RBs, linemen, and receivers rather than a single additional WR.
Prior to Allen, I generally thought of Matthew Stafford as the guy who was drafted for his physical tools more so than his prep accomplishments who largely worked out as a pro… though Stafford was certainly more accomplished in college than Allen was.
Hasn’t anyone watch any tape on this kid ? I’m a Gator fan and watched all of his games.
He has a cannon for an arm and good athletic skill BUT he desperately needed another year playing college ball. He cannot read a defense, has trouble going through his progressions when the primary receiver is covered and has accuracy issues throwing the ball. He most definitely is a project but if he landed on a solid team with a good coaching staff and held the clip board learning for a couple of years, he might be pretty good.
The Richardson hype is being driven by people who watch tape. Go on YouTube and you’ll see people doing the film breakdowns drooling over the potential.
Who’s better: Richardson or Trask?
Since I watched both Trask and Richardson, I would pick Trask. The reason being that while Richardson physically is better than Trask, Trask has a lot more above the shoulders. Many Gator fans say of Richardson “Million dollar arm….10 cent head”.
I suppose a little bit of it is this feeling that if he does turn out to be awesome, we will have missed out on the awesomeness at UF…but, yeah, most of us Gators do that thing from Arrested Development where they go “..him?”
There’s Seahawks blogger I follow who is all in on the idea of drafting this kid, largely because he can sit behind Geno for a year or two like Mahomes did with Alex Smith.
It’s interesting to think about where Lamar fits into this whole narrative. You’d think he’d have gotten the Anthony Richardson treatment because PHYSICALLY they have so many similar traits. They’re both incredibly explosive runners, very good NFL arms, decent scrambling triggers, etc. Sure, Richardson is bigger and taller, but Lamar was a MUUUUUUCH better passer. Lamar won the freaking Heisman as perhaps the greatest dual-threat QB college has ever seen. And he nearly slipped out of the first round, when Richardson is seemingly a top-5 lock?!
Maybe it was because there were too many other QB prospects and they reserved the “physical freak” label for Allen? Maybe there’s some subtle bias working it’s way in, certainly when he was told to try out as a WR. Maybe it’s just that Lamar’s NFL success has caused teams to rethink the way they value and analyze athleticism? Point is, the draft cycle has spun itself out already and some poor team is going to have to deal with scattershot-Richardson because they took the cheese….I just hope it isn’t one of mine.
I believe many teams felt Lamar didn’t have an NFL arm. They saw his athleticism, but were concerned about his ability to read defenses and be accurate. Which, I get. Lamar is an incredible talent. A “tilt the field” player. But in his 5 year career he’s never sniffed 4k yards in a season and only has had a 3k yard season once.
Richardson is built like a better Newton. He’s got a lot to learn but all the tools are there, physically. He can throw it a country mile, run like a gazelle and shake defenders off like Roethlisberger hearing the word “no”. Can he put it together at the next level? I don’t know. I think he’d be a disaster to have to start for any team day 1. I could see him excelling if he ends up with Seattle or Detroit. Both have QBs to keep him on the bench they’re not in love with long term could mirror a Smith to Mahomes transition
I’ve never seen the history rewritten around the draft the way it was around 2017. None of the prospects were considered elite and it wasn’t Mahomes who was viewed by fans as QB1 it was Deshaun Watson. Mahomes was the raw project QB you’re describing. He started off the draft process solidly as a Round 2 guy but his Combine and Pro Day improved his stock dramatically. If anything I remember Trubisky being seen as the safe pick even with the lack of experience because teams thought his accuracy and poise would carry over.
Trubisky was neck and neck with Deshaun Watson through much of the draft lead up with Mahomes a distant third. The hype acceleration might have been what pushed the Bears to unnecessarily trade up for him, but it’s not like he wasn’t a consensus top pick at QB.
Yah, not sure what Dave is on here. The Mahomes pick was widely panned at 10, he was in no way pushed out of the way by Trubes, Trubes was always going higher.
Love the Simpsons gag in the alt text!
As much as I like Josh Allen and enjoy seeing him play I have one serious reservation: He consistently makes risky plays when the game situation doesn’t require that.
It’s been a big issue in the playoffs and I think he needs to act more strategically before the Bills can win a superbowl.
I feel like the lesson of Allen is that if your coaching staff is really really great, then you have a *chance* of turning the himbo QB into a viable player.
Coaching is everything really. Guys with potential who get drafted into a poorly coached franchise will almost assuredly flame out. I’m not buying into the Richardson hype. I didn’t buy in on Wilson either. I also didn’t buy in on Allen. Work ethic is more important to me than physical attributes and I think that’s really the difference in why Allen succeeded and Wilson failed.
Dave already made a comic on the subject but it’s worth repeating: The Bills’ FO and coaching staff does not get credited enough for their handling of Josh Allen. He looked terrible through his first two seasons but they understood that he was a project player that was going to need time to develop as the team around him got better. They fixed his mechanics, got him an elite weapon, and let him blossom into an elite quarterback rather than panicking and moving on from him at the first sign of struggle.
It’s why the Josh Allen comparison is so stupid. To me, it’s just code for “This guy sucks, but if he goes to perfect situation with coaches that are patient enough to work with him, he might be great.” There aren’t many situations like that in this league.
I’ve always wondered just how many QBs could’ve been Josh Allen if they’d been in different situations. Like true MVP-ceiling guys who actually come close to that. Would Sam Darnold have flourished with NE? Would Trey Lance have worked out if he was in BAL? Hell, would Trubisky had been decent if he had been anywhere away from Chicago? Hell, how bad would Kirk Cousins had been if he hadn’t gotten in with Shanahan? How much is on the individual for just not being good, and how much is it incompetence. I feel like we just kind of combine the two when writing off busts
SNYDER IS GONE
I knew Allen would be great because he was like Wentz – ELITE. And Levis is the next Wentz and Allen!