Simulating Super Bowl 50
One of those silly things that pops up every year around this time is simulations of the game by multiple people in multiple ways. Madden, Tecmo Bowl, throwing darts at a wall, it’s all utterly pointless but it’s still kind of funny silliness. I hope no one actually takes Madden Simulations results seriously. Letting a computer program decide the fate of football teams is just absurd on multiple levels.
*glares at NCAA*
Anyway the Panthers should win, they are the better team, but I think people are severely overlooking the Broncos. I don’t think the Broncos will win, but I think they are going to put up a better fight then many people are predicting and if they do pull it off I won’t be surprised. Honestly bad things seem to happen when people overlook a really stout defense in the Super Bowl. If Carolina’s defense wasn’t also really good I’d actually pick the Broncos. As it stands I think it’ll be a low scoring turnoverfest but Denver simply won’t get anything going offensively and Carolina will get just enough.
I don’t know who I’m personally rooting for, this is a good matchup for me in terms of neutrality, it’s the opposite of last year where I hated both teams. This time I like both teams. I just hope it’s a good game, at least last year delivered that. It would be nice to see Peyton ride off into the sunset the winner he deserves to be. Von Miller is cool too, and Demarcus Ware getting a rings on not-Dallas would own. At the same time I hate John Elway and his horse face so watching him cry would be funny. Plus, if Peyton retires with only 1 ring, we get to keep the greatest fun fact in football alive: Eli Manning having more rings than his big older bro.
As a team I probably like the Panthers more. Most of the players are cool. I’d love to see Jared Allen get a ring. I would absolutely love to drink the tears of everyone who hates Cam Newton crying about him winning. On the other hand, the Panther bandwagon is already growing rather large and this feels like the beginning reign of a very dominant team that will likely have multiple chances to win this thing, so holding them back one more year might be fine with me.
I think I’m rooting for and expect the Panthers to win, but I’ll be fine with the opposite result. Here’s to a good game.
Computer simulations are incredible tools, but sports are one venue they just don’t belong in. Especially when the program being used for the simulation is a game designed for fun, not a program designed to analyze statistical data and previous performances.
My money’s on Carolina in a close, defensive game. Both defenses will stifle both offenses, and it’ll come down to which quarterback can make a few more key plays to push their team forward. In that battle, I trust the young soon-to-be MVP in his prime with more speed than most WRs and more running power than most RBs than I do the 40-year-old legend well past his prime.
Faster than most WRs? LOL
Lol wow. Cam is definitely faster than a lot of quarterbacks. But just wow. You must watch very little football to think he is faster than most wide receivers (if any at all). Bandwagon Panthers fan i presume.
I mean, faster than most WRs is a bad statement, but on par with many WRs is probably a fair assessment.
Cam ran a 4.59 second 40 yard dash, and the average WR time is 4.55. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he can match WRs. He’s such a big dude and he has a long stride, so he never looks as fast as he is actually moving.
Also called “The Gronk Effect”
Cam’s 40 time was 4.59. As Dave said, the average WR time is 4.55. So, on the face of it, Cam is three one-hundredths of a second slower than the average wide receiver. Lets dive a little deeper into this number.
First of all, every single player at the combine is young, in their prime physically, very healthy, and has trained specifically for the combine. The average age of an NFL receiver, per the 2014 NFL census, is around 28, and while most 28-year old receivers are still lightning fast human beings, it’s not an unreasonable premise that they’ve begun to lose speed, meaning the majority of NFL wide receivers are not as fast as they were at the combine. Now this is all true of Cam too, but Cam at 26 is a full two years younger than the average wide receiver, which means his loss of speed between the combine and now will be much less significant than that of the average receiver.
Second, the majority of the receivers that are over that 28-year average are what we would typically consider a possession receiver, players like Julian Edelman, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, etc. In other words, not only do players get slower as they get older, but slower players stay longer since their assets don’t age. This is relevant in this context because it means that, in addition to the slower possession receivers who are at or under 28, as well as the all-around receivers who clocked slower than Cam like Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson, the majority of players beyond the average were and still are slower than Cam.
Third, on a related note to point #2, injuries. Players who are faster, not always, but generally speaking, are going to be more injury-prone, because that speed typically also entails a smaller, lighter frame that takes less energy to move, which means they’re more likely to get hurt from the same amount of force. It’s the same reason that RG3’s been ravaged by injuries while Cam’s been just fine for the most part. Cam’s bigger, so he can take an identical hit with less of a chance of injury. You have your exceptions, people like Cam who are 250 or so lbs. and run fast, but that’s the exception, not the rule. Generally speaking, faster people are smaller and lighter, which means less able to withstand a 220 lbs. strong safety ramming them in the chest full-speed. This is relevant because it means that faster players are going to be knocked out quicker, and those who stay are, based on the numbers, probably going to get hurt a few times, and while they won’t lose all their speed, will slow down some and transition to more of a possession role.
So, in other words, rookie Cam is already about as fast as the average rookie receiver, give or take a negligible fraction of a second. (Grab a stopwatch and try and stop it with less than a tenth of a second on the clock to get an idea of how minuscule 0.03″ is) Once you factor in the loss of speed that comes from both age and injuries in the NFL, both of which Cam has an advantage with since he’s A. younger than the average receiver and B. yet to suffer a serious lower-body injury, I think it is a very fair claim that Cam Newton is indeed faster than more than half of the receivers in the NFL, which would mean that my claim that he has “more speed than most WRs” would be true.
Also, if you’re going to insult me, at least come up with something creative. “You must not watch much football. Bet he’s a bandwagoner” sounds like it came from the mouth of an uncreative commenter on Reddit. I don’t ask for much, but if people are going to bash me, they should at least be creative in doing so.
To correct myself: When I say three one-hundredths of a second, I mean four one-hundredths of a second, and when I say 0.03″, I mean 0.04″. Still, if 0.03″ doesn’t make a significant difference, I don’t think 0.01″ does either.
At several forums I frequent, I was the only one to predict the Broncos to make it to the Superb Owl.. Full homer mode, GO!
And with that in mind: Denver 30, Carolina 17.
I humbly offer up this: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=780013
The Giants’ “every four years” prophecy might have hit a hiccup, but mine is alive and well.
Fuck John Elway and the Manning Family (even if peyton is the most tolerable) Cam Cameron and the rest of the remaining 2007 dolphins all the way
Dolphins are butt Ass and you know it
The best thing about the Two week break is that it gives everyone a chance to recover and rest, so Peyton might be able to surprise with a deep bomb everyone now and then. With that being said, the broncos lose the advantage of playing in Mile High stadium, probably the only reason they were able to last against New england. So unless cam is a turnover machine, and peyton plays field position, I expect the panthers to win this one.
Carolina 30, Denver 17
You don’t understand the affects of altitude do you?
I love Madden
There’s two reasons I think the Broncos stand a good chance of beating this Panthers team. First is that the Denver defence is very well equipped to deal with the Carolina offence. Denyer has a secondary that can lock down Carolina’s mediocre’s receiving corps man-to-man and leave enough bodies in the box to deal with the zone-read. I think this will severely limit the big plays Carolina has feasted on to leap out to big leads this season. The second is that Carolina’s offence has also benefited from short fields from defensive stops and turnovers and I don’t think that will be the case here. I do think their defence will get plenty of stops deep in Denver territory, but the Broncos punter is so good that won’t matter. We’ve seen it time and again where Peyton gets a 3-and-out inside his own 20 and then Colquitt booms a kick that pins their opponent inside their 20. As for the turnovers, the main reason I don’t think there’ll be many is because since he came back, Peyton has been doing the opposite of what he usually did when he makes his checks at the line. Now, if he doesn’t love what he’s seeing in a pass play, he’ll audible to a run and it’s very hard to pick off a handoff.
The final, superstitious reason is because the regular season MVP hasn’t won the Super Bowl since Kurt Warner.
Ha, I totally do a Tecmo Super Bowl simulation every year before the game.
“… and Demarcus Ware getting a rings on not-Dallas would own.”
God, that’s the thing I’m gonna hate most if the Broncos win. It was bad enough when Flozell “Drive Killer” Adams went to Pittsburgh for ONE YEAR and got a Super Bowl ring. Seeing another Cowboy player find Super Bowl success after leaving the Cowboys… ugh.
Though I like Ware a whole lot more than I did Adams, so I wouldn’t mind it THAT much.
Thankfully Flozell the Clown didn’t get a ring thanks to the Packers.
Dave, you’re my hero for giving Jered Allen a shout out. I’m a big KC fan and I’ve loved and respected Jered Allen since he was on the team.
He spent the entire day with my brother in HI during the pro bowl one year just because my brother was a fan. He even went out to dinner with my family. Great player on and off the field, and he deserves a ring.
As a life long Denver fan, I want us to earn Peyton his ring. Though to be fair our defense deserves it more than he does though. But if we lose to the Panthers I’ll be fine with it, they’re a great team with some outstanding players and even better people on the team.
Compared to last year with the two worst fanbases, this year has been two teams with pretty tolerable/likeable fans
Wasn’t Madden dead-on about the results of last year’s Super Bowl?
I think Denver’s D is being overlooked to an extent. If they can keep Carolina from starting fast, which I think they will, then this game will go to the Broncos. Typically the play calling for this big of a game begins conservatively, especially for a first time there as head coach. I just don’t see the Panthers starting hot and that is their game.
I do agree that the Panthers are poised to be back here again but this is the sheriff’s sunset ride.
I’m a tennessee fan so I’m rooting for Peyton, but the giants fan in me wants Eli to have more rings than Peyton. Either way I’m taking Denver. Their offense has more weapons than people realize and that defense is the anti cam. Cam is really bad under pressure. The falcons beat cam by blitzing and the broncos are immensely better at pass rush than the falcons are.
Broncos win if we can score points on defense, otherwise it’s Carolina’s game. Regardless of the outcome I love this matchup because these are two teams a lot of people were calling out for not even making the playoffs before the season started (the Panthers more than the Broncos of course, but I remember a lot of articles about how this is the Chiefs’ year to come out ahead in the AFC West, really, honestly, we’re serious). The No Respect Bowl is a lot more fun than the Weed Bowl was.
A Cubs fan in a Draw Play comic? My life is complete!
I’m just glad for a game in which I’m good with either side winning. I’m an AFC guy first and foremost – at least for 3/4 of the potential representatives, the rest I’m hopping on the NFC train for – but this time, long as it’s a good game, I’ll be happy for the eventual champs.
Doritos – check.
Salsa – check.
Rekorderlig – check.
Earplugs (hi Coldplay!) – check.
Let’s fucking DO THIS.
Now I must track down a nature show hosted by a Mountie.
If you ask me, electric football is a metaphor for America– always shaking, always noisy, never really knowing where it’s going.
Nice subtle Pitt shoutout!
Welp, Denver’s defense put in one of the best performances of all time