The Draw Play

March through about mid-August is a time of optimism. The pain of the season is behind you and now things can only get better. Even moves that do impact your squad, like an important player leaving in free agency or a bad draft pick, can easily be overwritten with happy serotonin about cap savings and underdog status. Everyone has a great training camp. Everybody is healthy. You look and evaluate your team through a thick haze of hope. Even I do it, and I hate the Giants more than anybody except maybe Tom Brady.

It’s just an easy time to get swept up in potential. Even skeptics naturally give their team the benefit of the doubt moving forward. You think about all the little stuff that went wrong last year and you just kind of assume that it’ll get better. Players who struggle will have more experience in figuring it out, new coaches will change things for the better, new players will fill holes. Most importantly, and most delusionally, everyone is automatically assumed to be healthy until proven otherwise. I’m writing this about half a day after a report dropped that Malik Nabers mildly sprained his ankle, and I gotta tell you, that report gave me a kidney punch that hurt worse than I expected it to. It was hard to not get swept up in his training camp highlights. Even as that news broke, I also saw that Evan Neal was activated from the PUP list, and my dumb ass immediately started thinking “Hey, with an actual o-line coach and less pressure on him, maybe he can take that step forward”. It’s so easy to buy in when you aren’t in the midst of the actual season watching your team piss wide left of the bowl.

But while every team theoretically improved during the offseason, the harsh reality is that some teams are going to stumble and fall, and they won’t always be the ones we expect. Some will lose a season to devastating injury to a key player. Some will experience previously unknown levels of dysfunction that we can only recognize with hindsight. Some will just have bad luck. Some will face the cold hard face of god who laughs and smites them.

So instead of trying to predict the winners and the dark horses of the league, I want to take some time to try and guess who is going to eat shit. Which fanbase will be sharing their own variation of that “I wanna die” meme after every game by mid-October.

GIANTS – Like most bottom-feeder teams on this list, the Giants can’t actually regress that far. Last year was the regression year. This year is the “do anything or everyone gets fired” year. Last year’s team went 6-11 but it felt much worse. However Jones missed half the year with injury and the team got bodied by a brutal early schedule. The team lost Saquon (unfortunate but understandable) and McKinney (a bummer) but got Brian Burns and a bunch of linemen for their new coach. They also replaced Stinky Winky with a dude from the Titans. The team has very little expectation and if they get worse, which they could, I assume everyone is out on their ass. The one plus is if Daniel Jones goes down the team doesn’t get any worse. Regression Risk: fair
COMMANDERS – Again, you cant get much worse. Last year was a bridge season between eras. The Snyder infection was in the midst of being cleaned out but it wasn’t done yet. Now the Commies enter a truly new era and honestly, things can pretty much only go up. This is a year the team is playing with house money, and I’d feel pretty relaxed if I was a Washington fan. Regression Risk: very low
EAGLES – This is an odd case because you could argue they already did their regression in December of last year. The Eagles were, honestly, maybe the worst team in football over the last few weeks of the season. So now this team is in a weird spot. But most of the important pieces are still there and Matt Patricia was thrown off the cliff from Midsommar. Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore are upgrades at coordinator, but Sirianni still exists and we all hate him. The question is, did the vibes sour so badly that they can’t get back to the groove? Very, very plausible. Regression Risk: I’ve got my eye on you
COWBOYS – If there is a consensus regression pick it’s probably Dallas. After the bedwetting in the playoffs last year Dallas has spent the entire offseason giving off bad, bad vibes. A competent franchise would have Dak and/or CD locked up by now, instead signs appear to be Jerry is betting against Dak and CD seems…thrilled. Im sure Micah Parsons is watching with great interest. The team did nothing in free agency and their slogan of “all in” became a joke. There is still talent here, but if Dallas implodes this year I don’t think anyone will be surprised. We will however all be delighted. Regression Risk: Oh yeah baby, hit me

BEARS – New QB, new WR, no expectations whatsoever, the Bears are stress-free. As long as Caleb doesn’t look like a complete bust the Bears could finish the year with 3 wins and the fans would probably be okay with it. Regression Risk: aint nothing to worry about
VIKINGS – What a weird team. Last year the Vikings were struck by horrible injury luck to both their QB and their top WR and had to flounder about. They did okay with a bad hand. Now JJ (The WR) is healthy again and JJ (The QB) is in town. This transition could prove bumpy though so I wouldn’t be shocked if they stumbled a little bit as Darnold sucks for a few weeks and then JJ has rookie year troubles. Regression Risk: wouldn’t be a shock
PACKERS – The Packers are entering this season with a lot of hype. After the Jordan Love experiment paid dividends in the second half of the season it feels like he’s already been annointed. I’m…dubious. Half a season from low expectations does not make a king. This is one of the pitfalls of offseason optimism. Love could very well just keep going on his skyward trajectory. But not enough people are considering the possibility that…he might not. With tape and time the Packers new star could get figured out and struggle. If he gets hurt, that’s even worse. Regression Risk: more plausible than cheeseheads will admit to themselves
LIONS – I was pessimistic about the Lions entering last year. I was very wrong on that. I still think they are a regression risk though, because staying at the top over a period of time just gets harder the longer it goes. I am convinced that this organization as it currently stands is in a great place. The staff is good, the team is well-constructed, and the vibes are immaculate. But I can’t bring myself to fully trust Jared Goff and Campbell’s penchant for rolling the dice has just as much chance of blowing up in his face as it does working. On top of that, the NFC Championship is a high bar, so assuming the team won’t reach it shouldn’t be controversial. Regression Risk: likely, but not by much

SAINTS – Now here’s an easy bet for dead team walking. “But I’m sure Dennis Allen will turn it around!” – A severely impaired drunk on Bourbon Street. I could barely tell you anything about this team. This squad has been in hell since Brees bailed and the cap shenanigans they trapped themselves in just get worse and worse. Even in such a weak division the Saints could sink into the bayou and get eaten by alligators. Regression Risk: The boys are leaving town, the boys are leaving town
FALCONS – New coach, new QB, low expectations. The Falcons may very well end up with a worse record this year compared to last but it’ll probably be because Kirk gets hurt or something. This is a stupid team with mediocrity written all over it. Regression Risk: Yeah, I get it
BUCS – How does it feel to be king of the shit-heap? Probably still feels pretty good. But Baker runs on spite, and if he’s on the expected division favorite, will he suddenly go pumpkin? More likely than you think. Let’s not forget, Todd Bowles is still not a great head coach. Regression Risk: Probably, but who cares, have you seen everyone else at this party
PANTHERS – It would be hard for the Panthers to be worse than they were last season. It’s mathematically possible, but even then, unlikely. A new coaching staff even brings in a little bit of hope. Regression Risk: The only thing the Panthers don’t really have to worry about

49ERS – I think the 49ers will be fine. Ayuik is still there. Deebo is still there, Purdy is good. The coaching is great. The organization is solid. Barring catastrophic injury luck this team is a Super Bowl contender and if they stumble, it won’t be very far. Regression Risk: hitting a bump on the sidewalk
RAMS – Stafford isn’t any younger. Donald is gone. They were mid last season. I think the seams could come apart here pretty easily. Regression Risk: pretty fair, tbh
SEAHAWKS – Last year was kind of the regression from an expectation that was too high to begin with. They barely made the playoffs in 2022. This year they have a new coach, so expectations can be lower without risk of worry. They will probably be nothing special and could be a bigger risk for a sudden rise. Regression Risk: whatever, don’t worry about it, man
CARDINALS – The Cardinals sucked last year. They can’t be much worse. They need to be better though. Regression Risk: regression? take a step forward first

PATRIOTS – A new era is finally upon us! I am excited to see how this pans out. They jettisoned the old man but in a lot of ways he has not been fully purged. Mayo is his disciple, after all. However last year was an abomination and now they have a new QB and a new lease. This is a house money season, which will make it very funny if Drake Maye is really bad and everyone just kinda ignores it because the team is bad. I get extreme Darnold vibes from Maye and I could not tell you why. I think he’s going to flash but suck this year and everyone will make excuses, then do the same in year 2 and people will begin to worry. Regression Risk: nothing to stress about
JETS – The entire season rides on the ankles of a 40-year-old escapee from the loony bin. It’s hard to call the Jets a candidate for regression after last year was such an immediate disaster. I think the Jets are still very high risk for another disaster, even if Rodgers manages to play more than 4 snaps this time. Regression Risk: expect some time in total darkness
DOLPHINS – Well, if previous years are anything to go by, the Dolphins will regress in November and December. Maybe Miami is one of the best home-field advantages in sports until the winter hits and the other team isn’t suffering on the sidelines. The Phins keep showing flashes of brilliance to start and then tripping over themselves by the end, Germany in World Wars style. I have no reason to expect anything less. Regression Risk: things will cool off after a bit
BILLS – The Bills have moxie and gumption but the flaws are starting to show. They struggled much of last year despite the #2 seed finish. Josh Allen rules but he’s occasionally struck by Favre Brain. No more Stefon Diggs. Staying at the top is hard to do for long periods, and this could be the year things crack. Regression Risk: Medium-level wing sauce

STEELERS – At some point this Tomlin voodoo of never having a losing season has to end. It has to! He can’t keep getting away with this. I think the Steelers are a risk of falling apart (especially if they suffer a few key defensive injuries) but Tomlin is like magic at somehow pulling 8+ wins out of his ass so he can get that ass spanked thoroughly in the playoffs. Regression Risk: should be high but logic is ineffective
RAVENS – Yeah, the Ravens could fall apart. Last year was great but they lost their defensive mastermind. Last year felt like everything was just going their way until they blew it. This will still be a good team, but expect a very possible step back, imo. Regression Risk: reluctantly yes
BROWNS – If Watson stays healthy, that might actually be the worst outcome the team could have. Everything about this franchise is pretty well set up except that gigantic albatross in the middle. To have Joe Flacco get off his couch and drag you to the playoffs is an indictment. I think the factory of sadness is getting back into production this year. Regression Risk: about as likely as it is that Watson is a creep
BENGALS – Last year they got hit by the dreaded QB injury. This team needs Burrow and Chase healthy. Since last year was a bust that actually got more wins than expected with Burrow out, this year is unlikely to be a fall backwards. Regression Risk: Will the real Joe Burrow get a better haircut

TITANS – New coach, new regime, likely the beginning of a rebuild. If Levis doesn’t play out of his mind this year, this is likely similar to Sam Howell from last year. He’ll be gone and forgotten. Regression Risk: likely, but not far to fall
TEXANS – If you wanna be spicy then here’s your pick. Just like Jordan Love got anointed really fast, so did Stroud. I have more faith in Stroud and this regime though. However a playoff berth will likely be a bit harder this year. Regression Risk: not terribly likely, but could happen, don’t tell Houston fans, they are very happy right now
JAGUARS – They fell apart last season after Trevor got hurt. The window feels like it might have already closed. I can’t say I expect much this year. Regression Risk: ass tightening rapidly
COLTS – Well, provided the QB stays healthy, maybe they will be good? They enter the season with mid expectations and boy howdy do I think they will meet that. Regression Risk: meh

CHARGERS – I am drinking the Harbaugh kool-aid so I do not predict the Chargers to regress this year, even if they struggle some. Regression Risk: don’t worry about it, man
RAIDERS – As much as I wish Antonio Peirce success, I worry. Still no genuine QB. The staff he built around him also doesn’t inspire me. This team has better vibes than the McDaniels hire ever had but that’s such a low bar the last person to see it was Stockton Rush. I think this team is in for a sad year and I just hope Pierce gets some time. Regression Risk: Just suffer baby
BRONCOS – Rancid vibes. Absolutely rancid. I have no idea how this team won 8 games last year. Straight down the toilet with you. Regression Risk: Higher than Sean Payton in a hotel room with hookers
CHIEFS – Man unless Mahomes tears his ACL this team is bulletproof. Regression Risk: fuck off already

My guesses for coaches fired by season’s end:
-Dennis Allen
-Robert Saleh
-Sean Payton
-McCarthy