David Gettleman Ignores The Nerds
Nerds are gonna be discussing the Giants selection of Saquon Barkley for a long, long time. All of us are.
The Giants selected a running back #2 overall and a lot of people are either upset about it or laughing about it. Even with Barkley being probably one of the highest rated RB prospects in years. It’s hard to argue with the logic from the statistical nerd perspective. RBs just aren’t as inherently valuable anymore. The NFL system no longer relies on the RB as the backbone of a team. The position just doesn’t hold the level of value it used to. From a statistical value perspective, drafting Barkley at #2 was a mistake. If Barkley turns into a hall of famer, it was still statistically a mistake. It’s a mistake the same way trading up in the second round to draft a kicker is a mistake, regardless of how good the kicker ends up being. If Darnold, Allen, Rosen, and every other position end up being ass and Barkley turns into the only good 2018 first rounder it was still, from a value-based positional statistical perspective, not the wisest move. It was a risk.
Now we wait to see if he ends up being an exception that shows teams the value of taking risks, or an example of why it was a mistake. I feel bad for the kid. He’s gotta be a hell of a stud to keep the “I told you so” crowds at bay.
But while I agree that from that statistical perspective (and from the perspective that the Giants need a QB for the future) this may not have been a good move, anyone saying this was a bad pick is kind of being an idiot. This is only a bad pick if Barkley busts or is below average. Barkley was in many eyes the best prospect in the entire draft. The best player available. If Barkley lives up to half the hype he had coming in, the dude is not a bad pick, just maybe not the best pick given the circumstances. The Giants got better. For all the talk about how you can plug and play any cheap RB these days the Giants have not been able to do that at all. Part of that is the offensive line. Part of that is coaching. But part of that is just the players not being that great. The Giants haven’t had a talented back since Ahmad Bradshaw was young and healthy, and our running game has been abysmal as fuck. No team has respected our running game in years, which means defenses can stick extra men in coverage and send rushers at Eli more, which hasn’t ended well. OBJ’s ridiculous talent more or less carried the offense these past 3 seasons.
The Giants did a little bit of upgrading at OL. They drafted a mauler guard named Will Hernandez who should help the weak inside line. They threw moneybags at Nate Solder, so at the very least Eli’s blindside will be protected by some actual competence now. And instead of relying on Paul “What’s a hole look like” Perkins or the myriad of other failures we’ve had back there, we should have an actual asset. Someone who can make plays out of busted blocking. Someone who can catch a ball and make defenders pay in space. An actual, honest to god weapon, even when the pocket breaks down and Eli has to dump it. So yeah, on this front, I’m kinda with grumpy old Gettleman. Saquon Barkley may not have been the best or wisest pick at #2, but anyone calling him THE WORST PICK even before the dude plays a down is a goddamn moron who should probably get a wedgie.
Barkley was a risky decision at #2, but if he is good, it’s far from a bad pick. It’s just not the best pick the Giants could have made. In any case I’m excited to see what an actual talented RB looks like for the first time in a while.
Also Allen was the worst pick in round one lol Bills.
Shut up, nerds.
Was not a fan of Denver’s draft. It’s not that we drafted scrubs– our first rounder should be a monster, and our 2nd and 3rds will likely be starters/have significant playtime– but we didn’t touch our offensive line, and that guard Indi took would have been *boom* instant respectability on the line. I get the thought process– free Von, make it impossible to double/triple team all the defensive threats, but our O-Line has more holes than a Stephanie Meyer plot. It’s more easily penetrated than Debbie in Dallas. It’s softer than Eli’s skull (probably).
It’s kind of the opposite situation– the Giants took a great player in a bad position, but it filled a need; the Broncos took a great player in a good position, but neglected a need.
I’d much rather have the Giant’s mentality than what Elway did. Still, after Schlereth spent his time in Denver literally crapping his pants while Elway was nose-to-butt for 3 hours, maybe Elway just hates offensive lines.
Bradley Chubb was the best player on the board, and fulfilled a position of need. Shaq Barrett and Shane Ray are both free agents in 2019 as it stands. I’d also have Bradley Chubb ahead of Myles Garrett, I think he’s that good. The Broncos got value and starters at every pick rounds 1-4.
Veldheer comes in to address RT, for the cost of a sixth rounder in this class, and a $6m APY salary. That’s a steal if he regains his old form. They still have Cyrus Kouandjio who the Bills used a second rounder for in 2015. He’s a fit in a power scheme. However, they need to be signed to a longer term deal. I think the Broncos wanted one of those top guards at #40, but there was an early run on them. The Broncos got another first round talent in Courtland Sutton. I wanted Tyrell Crosby in the fourth round, and he was there in the fifth, and he could have addressed guard or tackle, but getting a blocking tight end also helps. The Broncos have two capable ones and that helps with the protection. Moving Leary to LG helps Bolles a lot, who should take a step forward moving into year 2.
Connor McGovern, Max Garcia, JJ Dielmann, Melenik Watson and Billy Turner are basically battling it out to be the starter at RG this season. The Broncos like McGovern, and Watson’s weaknesses moving laterally are likely to be mitigated at guard. Dielmann pro badly makes Garcia expendable, and backs up center and guard. Billy Turner could the swing tackle/guard. Sam Jones, Leon Jacobson and Austin Schlottman should all make the practice squad. I really like Jacobson. Tough, athletic and versatile.
The Giants should’ve traded down with the bills for as many picks as possible, Barkley was a fine pick but there’s no doubt they would’ve benefited more from a trade down than drafting a RB.
I would have to agree. I think the Browns could have waited to with their forth pick. I am a fan of mayfield but the giants could have traded with the Bills have the 12 and 22 plus an extra first rounder next year. That would have left them the 12 pick to do as they please plus getting Lamar Jackson at 22. No one knows what any of these players will be but I am high on Jackson if he gets a chance to sit back and in NY he would have
As a Bills fan, I think I can say that a record was set. Fans went from utter jubilation from the mention of Josh (expecting it to be Rosen) and then utter despair at “Allen”
Now, he does have the highest upside. If he manages to hit his ceiling, he compares to Roethlesburger and no one will be laughing. But man, the bust potential is huge…
This, exactly this. The whole bar got hyped when we moved up, then Josh (Wooooooo..) Allen (ohhhhhh…) Cue one guy slamming his head into the bar itself.
#freezingcoldtakes
The article you linked to, most of the entertainment can be found in the comments section. It has everything, including the usual Eli bashers aka bricks for brains.
“Teams make busts, players don’t”. Tell that to Jamarcus Russell’s Sizzurp addiction, Trent Richardson’s legs, or Johnny Manziel’s alter ego.
“Satistically”
FYI
Heh heh wedgies.
pretty much what i came here to post
carry on
I think taking Saquon Barkley was not only the right thing to do but a great pick, and I think that the value of the running back has been somewhat forgotten lately for the success of a team. NO without Kamara is not the same team. Jacksonville with Ivory and Yeldon and not Fournette were significantly inferior and Gurley even managed to make Jeff Fisher look almost competent as a rookie. The Broncos have Picked a whole bunch of Running backs in round 2 or 3 that haven’t panned out whatsoever. Just because you can frequently find hidden talent at RB outside of round 1, doesn’t mean you will. The only RBs for the Broncos that have had any success since Shanahan left are Knowshon Moreno (12th overall in 2009, strangely successful despite really being a bust) and CJ Anderson (undrafted). You might draft Lev Bell in the 2nd round maybe even a serviceable couple of seasons from a Giovani Bernard or an Eddie Lacy, but you are far more likely to get Montee Ball.
When are you going to post an update to the Browns QB hydra? I think there are at least six more heads since it was posted, and you could even add a seventh with Mayfield
That’s more a social media thing, I update it every time a new player officially starts a game. I just dont post it here, my twitter or FB will have it
I liked the Barkley pick. I see it as having a similar effect as what Zeke has done in Dallas. Yes, they have a pretty darn good o-line. But without Zeke in the lineup, how much did their running game help? It was a pretty big dropoff. Having Barkley now helps shore up the running game, they can build the o-line, and still look for a QB between now and when Eli rides off into the sunset, magic bomb pop and all.
Now if you want to talk about bad value, let’s talk about that Saints pick…..
Super happy that the Chargers picked someone who I actually wanted them to pick. This years draft was pretty good, first three rounds were defense. Very smart. We were like 28th in Run Stop, so we got a LB and DT in the second and third rounds. Our defense is now very lethal, and the fact that the Broncos and the Raiders didn’t pick to their team needs, we have a pretty good shot at the AFC West. I’m now overlooking the Chiefs, since they lost their top defensive players, didnt have a first round pick, and have Pat Mahomes at QB. I’m feeling good about this year.
Not so Sad Chargers Fan. I wish good luck to the Chargers this year in a very competitive division.
We’ll need all the luck we can get. We’re always plagued with something. In the Mike McCoy era, it was injuries. Last year, missed field goals (could’ve been 11-5 if we had a decent kicker).
Injuries are always a problem for us, but last year it wasn’t too significant, or not as bad when we lost our whole WR depth in the 2015-2016 season.
i don’t think it was just taking barkley #2 that people are up in arms about. it’s that eli is 37, webb is unknown, and they took barkley #2. oh, and they took lauletta so that tells people they don’t have much faith in webb either. i don’t think barkley is a bad idea at all
I like Saquon Barkley a lot and wish him the best on the Giants. If a team needed a Running Back I think Barkley was an obvious choice.
However, if Barkley does become a Hall Of Famer it doesn’t make GM David Gettleman a drafting genius.He may be a salary cap wizard (ruthless). But his drafting history with the Carolina Panthers and the way he treated players was what got him Fired in Carolina.
Can’t wait until he’s in the HOF
He fumbled. Refs suck
you can’t go from giving wedgies to the stats nerds to calling Josh “Fucks” Allen the worst pick, Dave.
I can and I did
I actually kind of hoping those QBs bust just to shut some people up, especially the commenters on that BR article.
And some butthurt mock drafters.
I would like to personally thank the New York Giants and most of all, the Cleveland Browns, for allowing Bradley Chubb to fall to five.
With him opposite Von Miller, it’s going to be a bad time to be a QB.
I agree with Dave in that drafting Saquon Barkley was by no means the ‘worst’ pick. Not even close. Heck, it’s not even that unheard of to draft an RB at #5 or above in recent drafts. Just looking from recent ones, Fournette was drafted at #4 and he rejuvenated the Jags’ offense. Ditto for Zeke for the Cowboys at the same pick number. Technically Gurley was drafted at #10, but look what a huge part he’s done for last season’s Rams.
However, while by no means is the pick ‘horrible’ or ‘bad’ from first glance, one cannot doubt that it’s definitely not ‘good’ either at this point. There’s only one word I can currently put to that pick: ‘Questionable’.
Drafting an RB that high just screams ‘win-now move’. No offense to Eli, but Giants fans should ask themselves: Is this team only a few pieces away from competing for a ring? Are they capable of winning it all in only a few years? In Odell we trust?
It’s doubtful. The Giants got exposed horribly last season, and there’s only so much blame you can heap on McAdoo or WR injuries out of the blue. 2016’s overachievement had obscured many gaping flaws and they were all laid bare. Trading down to amass a bunch of picks to fill in those holes might have been the prudent course to take, or as many said, find Eli’s eventual successor, and if the management is so sure that Davis Webb will be ‘the guy’ of the future(or that none of the first-round QBs this year were deserving of inheriting Eli’s mantle), then take someone like Chubb whose position is more valuable in a pass-centric league, especially with JPP leaving for the Bucs recently.
Not to mention that, even though some have taken to calling Barkley a ‘generational talent’ or something, as with all positions RBs have the possibility to bust. It’s been six years, but one must not forget the Browns’ debacle with drafting Trent Richardson. He looked awesome at the time of the draft. Nobody faulted the Browns for taking him at #3 at that time besides the usual people who blow raspberries at Browns drafts just because, well, they’re the Browns. And you know what happened.
And from what I’ve heard, Barkley’s performance in college hasn’t been exactly that stellar with plenty of ups and downs, especially the reports that his yards after contact leaves much to be desired, and the fact that he’d gone completely silent against some weak opponents. Also, RBs depend heavily on the performance of the O-line. The Giants’ O-line has been, well, you know. Nate Solder may have improved it but I don’t see that line as being an elite one now. These implications don’t look very optimistic that Barkley will thrive with the Giants, especially if all the doubts about him from pre-draft are true.
Of course, projecting at this point is mostly pointless though. We have to see for ourselves when the season starts to truly find out. Like all draft picks, Barkley could be a smash hit, or he could be a bust. Like I mentioned, he could be a Fournette or a Zeke. Or he could be a T-Rich. Or he could be middling; above-average but not worth the value of being drafted #2.
Certainly not a pick I would have made if I had control over #2, though. But hey, what do I know? I’m just some random guy typing away on his computer, and Gettleman’s an actual NFL GM who’s tasted success before. Let’s just sit back and see how the Giants will spin this one out.
My only concern is that Penn State did not exactly have a good history when it comes to their running backs being drafted into the pros, here’s hoping this will be one of the exceptions. Also I’m not sold on the offensive line yet.
Oh worst is Denzel Ward by Cleveland at #4. Have needs everywhere; Bradley Chubb was best defense available
Chubb plays the same position that Myles Garrett does though (Pass rushing end vs. Run/pass end). And having a good secondary is important, so I thought this made a ton of sense.
Steelers….. Well….. TERRELL EDMUNDS!!! RONNIE HARRISON WAS ON THE BOARD!! We made up for it by drafting SAQUAN BARKLEYS buddy marcus allen who is a much better saftey
From a value perspective for a team in a vacuum, yea that’s a bad value pick IF Barkely is ONLY gonna run the ball. Let’s just clarify value here: wins above replacement or how many extra wins a player can get you. The difference between an average runner and a good runner is not very much, maybe one or two wins, but I would argue that very top running backs have a ton of value.
I’d argue that evaluating running backs for their entire package we’d see that RBs are currently undervalued in today’s NFL. Look at Le’veon Bell, Devonte Freeman and Alvin Kamara. I know those RB are extremely valuable to their teams.
They are almost like WR3 with an option to hand it off. Having them on the field ensures the offense gets the look they want and makes sure safeties can’t stay deep (huge for Drew Brees noodle arm). They get yards Wide Receivers couldn’t get and ensure that defenses keep linebackers on the field. This is just the eyeball test but I’d wager Kamara added 4-5 wins to the saints last year over the average running back. I’d take that with the number 2 pick every time.
I know it’s not the #2 pick but even the Pats drafted a do-everything back in the first round and Bellicheck is the best GM ever. And Barkley had waaaay more potential than Sony Minchel. I understand the math is bad if we are calculating this for a traditional runner, but if we look at how much value RBs add in their complete game – as a receiver, decoy, screener, blocker, runner – the math may work out in the Giants favor.
I’ll just put it this way: I knew the Browns were going to take a QB at #1. I resigned myself to this fact long ago, especially when we dealt Kizer to Green Bay. I was thrilled with the Baker Mayfield pick because he was the best QB in the draft. That being said, nobody was more disappointed than I was when the Giants took Barkley. I didn’t mind the Denzel Ward pick at #4, but I hoped like hell Saquon would fall to #4. But, we ended up with Chubb in round 2, so not all is lost.
I think Chubb will work out for the Browns. He’s one of those guys that will average 4.5 y/carry by getting 3-7 yards every carry.
Frank Gore, the greatest RB in Niners history, was a 3rd round pick.
I think the logic is clear. The Giants are hoping Barkley does for Eli what Terrell Davis did for Elway and what Zeke was supposed to do for Romo. If he can be an offensive workhorse and take pressure of the aging QB, there’s no reason to believe the Giants can’t make another Super Bowl run or two during Eli’s twilight years.
Dave Rappoccio – Wanna Eat Crow there buddy? How is Gettleman retiring in shame and Allen being a 2 year MVP candidate working out for ya? Giants one of or THE worst team in the NFL in 2021.
I hope you keep Daniel Jones and your head coach down there in New Jersey!
Keep your money in index funds buddy, your predictions are horrible.
Well this aged nicely