Reaping The Benefits Of Hindsight
First up, Draw Play news: I will be traveling for a wedding soon, so no comics till maybe next Friday. I also messed up my wrist somehow a couple weeks ago and it’s still kinda bugging me, so I might not update very much at all between now and the opener on Sept. 8th, just to give the tendons a nice fulfilling rest before the big season push begins and I’m doodling like mad every Sunday.
Now onto this week’s soapbox bugaboo
I saw some interactions online recently regarding Josh Allen and it made me kinda annoyed. Basically, someone said Josh Allen was bad for two years and we’ve forgotten about it, and swarms of Bills fans came in to attack that idea. It annoyed me because while I don’t necessarily agree that Josh Allen was truly bad in his first two years (I think he was very inconsistent), it is weird how the narrative around him changed once he took the leap forward. He wasn’t what he is now, and I think it’s disingenuous to say otherwise. But this is a phenomenon I’ve witnessed in action many times over many years with many players.
As sports fans we’ll always latch onto players and root for them. This is normal and expected and part of the fun. All of us have opinions on all of these dudes so we can talk to each other at the bar or with friends and family. But when it comes to players on your team, a fun blindness creeps in that’s both endearing and obnoxious. When Josh Allen got drafted, a lot of Bills fans were unhappy about the choice. A lot of people labled him a bust. A lot of people laughed. I was one of those people. Even admitting I didn’t have a deep opinion due to my lack of college watching, years of fandom had tailored me into seeing Josh Allen as a bust. All of those people, many, MANY of them Bills fans, were wrong.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a lot of those fans admitting it now. Many of them will actually admit to being upset on draft day, but then they’ll go on to say things like “I knew he was the guy when he hurdled Anthony Barr” (a specific thing I saw said many times). But I was there too. Josh Allen was an inconsistent mess for two years and a lot of these folks were skeptical even if they were fans who believed in him. Josh Allen not throwing for 300 yards in a game ever was a legitimate meme for a while. For every cool run or sweet bomb, he also had a plethora of overthrows and mental mistakes. For his first two seasons he looked pretty much like what many people originally labeled him as: a guy with all the physical tools who couldn’t seem to put it all together consistently enough. The potential was there, but could he actually reach it?
As soon as year 3 happened and he took that leap forward, it was like the entire discussion changed. Turns out he was always great and you filthy casuals just couldn’t see it. Fans taking victory laps because they were always right. It always strikes me as silly, because yeah, take the victory lap on your guy, but don’t pretend you were always right just because you supported him. Every fan supports pretty much every player on their team from the moment they end up on the roster. I’m on Daniel Jones’ side and I’ve wanted him to succeed since he was picked even if I don’t think he’s very good and expect him to fail. Trying to pretend you didn’t have doubts during those years after he panned out is a little silly. It’s funny, because if Daniel Jones does somehow take the leap this year (unlikely, but not impossible), there are a ton of plays and moments and excuses we Giants fans could use to cover up our previous skepticism the same way Bills fans have paved over their own previous reservations now that Allen is the man.
It’s all mostly harmless but I think the reason it annoys me, specifically with Allen, is it feels like it actually takes away credit from him and the Bills organization. If Josh Allen was actually this great QB the whole time, that reduces his story and makes him less interesting. Frankly, I think Josh’s ability to take charge and develop is a far better and more worthwhile narrative. It’s amazing to see how he’s grown as a professional. It’s been great to see him take the leap and prove the doubts wrong. He deserves credit for the strides he’s made and he deserves his fair share of the blame for his struggles before this. The Bills deserve credit too, for developing him, for keeping his coaching consistent, to giving him better support to facilitate his growth. Was it a coincidence that Allen took a massive leap the same year the Bills got Stefon Diggs? No. Diggs and Allen made each other better players. Allen wasn’t some dude who was secretly good the whole time but had nobody to throw to, Diggs made him better as a QB.
We need to stop praising players, especially QBs, in such vacuums. The Bills as a whole deserve a ton of credit for how they’ve developed Allen into an all-star. This is a team sport and nothing happens alone. We are more than happy to give players we like all the excuses in the world when they struggle, we have to acknowledge the work of everyone else when they succeed too.
As a Bills fan, I thought they should have drafted Josh Rosen. In further news, I will not be working in the NFL any time soon.
After the first season, my hope was that he would become competent. It’s a credit to his work ethic and Bills management and coaching that he’s come this far. I couldn’t be happier.
I remember a lot of people at the time were like “They drafted the wrong Josh!”
You’d never catch me doing something like that!
2015 Me: “Andy Dalton may not be a playmaker, but he is a smart QB. He knows how to get the ball to the real playmaker!”
Uh, well the 2015 Bengals was a special team, so of course it does make sense I’d be too optimistic.
2010 Me: “With Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco, Carson Palmer is going to have a career year!”
Heh, well we all make mistakes!
2005 Me: “Don’t worry. Palmer may be down but Jon Kitna is a smart QB. He’ll pull this off!”
Uh, uh, uh…
2001 Me: “Akili Smith is starting against the Jets? Great! After two seasons, he’ll make better decisions.”
(sobs) Oh, my God! I have a problem! I need help!
Well at least Joe Burrow broke that string of Qbs
I said he was the most raw quarterback, and if you watch his college highlights his talent was always there. I thought he was going to end up a bust. “Small school Talented QB going into notorious unsuccessful franchise”.
Yeah I will raise my hand and take my medicine on my bad Josh Allen take. Pretty much all the Bills doubters will, at least all the ones I know have. We’d been burned hard by EJ Manuel and I had no stomach for the idea of another high attribute washout. Allen was a project to be sure and his year 1 tape speaks for himself. But right now I don’t think anyone doubts that he’s going to be in the top 10 this year, likely top 5.
Kudos to the front office and coaches. I’ve seen a lot of regimes flounder and look for a quick fix. They didn’t. They had a plan and stuck to it when things looked grim.
TBF, us Bills fans had been burned by a lot of QB choices, but Manuel might have been the worst. OTOH, it’s not like the staff at the time could have developed him. My recollection is that his college coach didn’t see Manuel as more than a second round pick.
This will be the narrative surrounding Jalen Hurts should he take “the leap” this year. Everyone in the Philly fandom and most of the Philly media will suddenly have a case of partial amnesia and forget they’ve been deriding him and calling him a nobody for the past year+. (Especially this offseason)
Eagles fan here. I will freely admit that I wasn’t impressed with Hurts in year 1. It just seemed like everyone was hyping him up just because he wasn’t Carson Wentz. I even dubbed him Tebow 2.0.
Year 2, I was more lukewarm. There were moments where he stunk it up (including the playoff game), but there were also moments where he flashed greatness. It also helped that the Eagles finally figured out how to run the ball, after the offense for the first half of the year was essentially “Give Hurts the ball, then…profit?”
Now that he’s got AJ Brown, his good friend and legit #1 WR, could Hurts made another big leap this year? Certainly, and I would love it.
Even Tua is in a similar situation in Miami. I’m anxious for this season to start already.
If he’s gonna do it, this is the year. All the ingredients are there, from the skill positions, to the coaching, to the gutted conference and weak division.
The Jalen Hurts hype is real this year and it’s weird to me, but who knows he might do it
I’m not saying he *will* do it, but he’s been given all of the tools and help (including, as noted by Teufeldolch, a #1 veteran WR like when Allen had his breakout year). So now it’s prove-it-or-lose-it time.
I also think it’s weird that after two season where he pretty regularly made boneheaded mistakes (not just young player mistakes, truly wild decisions), it seems like there are zero doubters left this year. Wouldn’t it be more likely that we see a regression to the mean rather than sustained excellence forever? Anytime we see a season that’s a statistical anomaly in other areas (high number of turnovers, low number of injuries, way more catches than the rest of career) we predict the regression. I’m not expecting Josh Allen to turn into a pumpkin, but isn’t something like the first two season more likely than continued superstar level excellence that was absent until last season (counting HS and college career in addition to first 2 NFL years)?
Allen did regress as a passer last year when compared to his excellent 2020, though he remained much better than he was in his first two seasons. Yards per game, completion %, touchdown %, rating, and QBR were all notably down (though he remained in the top 10 in several of these categories) while interception % was up. He did improve in other ways, though, having the best rushing season of his career while also having the lowest sack % of his career (and one of the lowest in the league), an uncommon combination for a fleet-footed QB.
It’s been two seasons. Had it just been one, I would be right there with you. But it’s been two. That’s a way bigger sample size and so the anomaly would be that he would take a few steps back. He’s been improving every year he’s been in the league, and that probably will change, he has likely peaked or close enough, and he’ll spend about a decade hovering around this level of play except for maybe an anomalous bad year or a year where he’s the runaway MVP.
I thought Josh Allen was going to be a bust because he was a raw quarterback drafted into a not so great suitation.
And then it turned out that, out of all QBs taken that round he was in he wound up being in the best place for him.
#1 overall pick Baker Mayfield just got traded to the Panthers, to replace #3 pick Sam Darnold because the Browns and Jets would not protect their guys and cut bait. Josh Rosen was chased out after a year. Allen never would have seen the field in Baltimore because as raw as he was Flacco would still have been the better option early.
The Bills had gotten the monkey off their back by reaching the playoffs on 2017. They had some rope to let him develop.
I think Bills fans are like this because they had to be super defensive of him after year 2. Especially after that Texans wc game and him being 81 on the NFL top 100, lots of other fan bases mocked them. The hard-core Allen supporters felt validated and swung way too much on the other side though.
I am still all in on Mac Jones. Dude might have a sophomore slump (although I don’t think so) but in a year or three I think he’ll be a force to reckon with. Fortunately if I’m right I’ll have something to point to and if I’m wrong no one will remember a comment made halfway down the page on a webcomic about an entirely different QB.
I think you saw what he was in the playoffs. A good short range dealer but just not elite
Not that I entirely disagree with you, but I don’t think that playoff game is an indicator of Mac Jones’ capabilities. If I were to list out all the reasons why New England got ran out the building like they did, Mac Jones would not be very high on that list, if at all. Not to say that he was great but Tom Brady could have suited up for the Patriots that night and they still would have lost by at least 2 scores.
I know right? He flat out sucked in his rookie year and everybody was roasting the bills for trading away Tyrod to the Browns, and he was very inconsistent in his 2nd year. Now he is easily a top 4 QB and has the best Passer Rating in Career Playoff history.
The thing that worries me about Mac has little to do with him and everything to do with what’s surrounding him. The one thing that will derail a young passer’s career is coaching instability. Mac is already having to learn a new offense under a ghost coordinator in his 2nd year as a starter, which is usually a recipe for disaster. I had my issues with McDaniels but the guy was at least a very competent offensive mind and a good coach for Mac. I’m hoping he overcomes the change but I won’t be shocked at all if he regresses this year.
These are the Patriots, so unless the replacement OC fails hard out of the gate he’ll be around for at least a couple years, offering stability going forward.
That’s the problem. Whoever the OC is (Matt Patricia or Joe Judge), they are very likely to fail right out the gate. It’d be one thing if they brought in a Bill O’Brien because someone like that has a proven track record (and in BoB’s case, experience running the Pats’ offense). The two guys I just named are notable for being a mediocre at best defensive coordinator and calling a QB sneak on 3rd and long. Not exactly people you want to put trust in developing a young, franchise passer.
It doesn’t matter how well they are at defense coordinator or how well thier play caller is to develop a QB at least without Bill Bellicheck running the helm. Besides the Patriots don’t need the flashiest or most talented QB to win games they just need a person that can run an Offense.
I disagree. Bill Belichick isn’t a QB whisperer. He’s always let the OC/QB have full control over the offense and he’ll only occasionally add his own input when he feels necessary. Early in Brady’s career, that was Charlie Weis. As time went on, it mostly fell on Tom Brady himself. They could run the offense like that since they had great offensive minds and/or an experienced, high-IQ passer to carry that weight.
They have neither here. Mac Jones is young and still developing as a passer, so they need people that can help him reach his full potential. Matt Patricia couldn’t make it work with Matthew Stafford and he was a defensive coordinator the last time he was with the Pats. And Joe Judge… Well, I’m sure the guy who runs this page could tell you all about his offensive prowess. Bill Belichick can do a lot of things, but I don’t think he can magically save Mac Jones from that sort of trash.
He may not be a QB whisperer but he went 11-5 with Matt freaking Cassel, so it must count for something. Plus it also took Brady a couple of years to become great. It is also not exactly a secret that almost none of Bill Belichick’s coaches on his coaching tree has become great (except for Mike Vrabel).
Is Vrabel even part of Belichick’s coaching tree? Definitely one of the best Patriots ever to suit up and play, but his coaching skills have apparently been drawn from a wider pool. Not saying playing for Billy Five Aces didn’t help, but I’d call him a self made coach.
I mean Vrabel would be part of the Kubiak coaching tree,but almost everyone says that he is part of the belichick coaching tree
To answer Zippy’s question; no. Mike Vrabel may have been inspired by Belichick but he never coached under him and played multiple years outside of New England before he ever made the jump into coaching. At best he might be a Belichick disciple by extension but I wouldn’t say that.
To PTF, I think you might be misunderstanding me a bit here. I’m not saying Bill Belichick can’t win regardless of how Mac Jones develops, but if New England wants to vault back into AFC East contention, let alone Super Bowl contention, they’re going to need Mac Jones to take that next leap and step up as a passer. And in order for him to make that leap, he needs quality coaching at the most important positions around him, namely Offensive Coordinator. Even in that anomaly 11-5 year with Cassel, they had Josh McDaniels calling plays for him. It wasn’t Bill Belichick magically willing the team to victories, they still had a strong unit overall and made it work without Tom Brady.
Unlike 2008, Mac Jones doesn’t have the luxury of throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker. He needs a quality coordinator to help continue to develop into an elite passer. If New England settles on hiring crappy OCs because of a singular fluke year with a competent backup QB 14 years ago, they may as well kiss their chances of winning any division titles goodbye because they’ll never compete that way.
Travel was hired under BoB, I think that makes him part of BB’s coaching tree
To Stunkei, I understand your point and I agree with you that they won´t win the division (Insert Bills vs Patriots Wildcard matchup), but they still have a good shot at making the Playoffs.
To Anonymous, Mike Vrabel was actually hired by the owners and not Bill O Brian,
Was really high on Mac Jones until the Buffalo windy game last December when Belichick couldn’t even trust him to throw 5 passes. From that moment, just had to see the hard truth: he will be a game manager but won’t be the star I was hoping for. Definitely not even a half Brady. I’m afraid the Pats will be a mid-range team for the years to come. Belichick’s career will probably look a lot like Tom Landry’s. I hope I’m wrong.
Count me as one of the Bills fans who posted “We drafted the wrong Josh” on draft night.
Once he started playing, it was clear that Allen had massive talent, but he was wildly inconsistent. Part of me is still in disbelief that the guy from his rookie season is the same guy destroying teams now.
Having a franchise QB is the best seasoning for eating crow.
What the fuck is coaching, am I right?
I’m a dolphins fan. The best QB we’ve had since Marino retired was half a season of Gus Ferotte
Gotta disagree. It was Chad Pennington and entirely for the act of sending Bert Frave and the JEST packing as the 2008 season ended. They were also instrumental in causing the Patriots to miss with an 11-5 record, but I can’t be too angry given the way they stuffed the JEST hard.
This is true but I think a lot of fellow Dolphans don’t like acknowledging it is that Pennington was a Jet for most of his career
>that Pennington was a Jet for most of his career
But that was the best part. They shipped him out in favor of Bert and it wound up being him and the Dolphins who sent them packing. It just makes the F U that much sweeter in my opinion.
You hit the nail on the head with one of my issues with the Bills fandom. Great comic.
Kind of reminds me of the time when people were proclaiming that Eli is a bust until SB 42. In fact I remember the hate being had due to what happened in 2004 draft day, he was seen as a prima donna at the time.
Well if you don’t want your Josh Allen the Giants will happily take/need him after the failure of Daniel Jones is apparent.
You made a lot of great points, but I really liked that you highlighted Bills fans claiming that they knew Josh Allen was special after a specific play or game. You’re right, people are only saying that because Josh Allen ultimately panned out. Had he continued to struggle or even outright flop, those highlight plays would end up being nothing more than anomaly great moments from a not great QB.
NFL Throwback happened to upload this video a couple of days ago and I think it really puts things into perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNJCmrMFUwg. It’s EJ Manuel leading an 80 yard game winning TD drive with 1:30 left and no timeouts. Had the dude suddenly turned into a top 5 passer after this point, I’m sure those same people claiming to see the light with Allen now would have been claiming that this was the moment they knew EJ Manuel was something special. The reality is that you really don’t know it until they actually make that leap and claiming anything otherwise is silly.
It could be worse, there are now Matt Arazia takes
This isn’t super related to the comic but this weekend since the bills released araiza, you know who was punting for them? MATT BARKLEY
And he did pretty good too