Roberto Aguayo Gets Fired
I genuinely did not expect Roberto Aguayo to get cut that fast.
I actually thought Aguayo would be fine. First year jitters, time to settle in, get accustomed to everything, I figured he’d be fine. He’d still end up getting ripped apart on the internet for every miss, but he wouldn’t be the worst kicker in the league, he’d probably be around the bottom 3rd. Instead, he misses an extra point and poof: he’s gone. Just like that. Now he’s stuck in the den of inadequacy that is the Chicago Bears. Good luck, Roberto!
I figured he’d at the very least make it to the final round of cuts, even if he sucked. This feels remarkably early to pull a trigger on a guy. It seems like the Bucs can’t stop jumping the gun on Roberto. What’s the harm in letting him stick around till cuts? See if he can pull himself together in his next few weeks, and if not then keep Folk and let Aguayo go. If the quick pickup by the Bears is anything to go by, the Bucs had to know he would have been fine.
(Quick aside about the Bears: Roberto is now on the same team as Connor Barth, who was the kicker originally cut by the Bears to make room for Aguayo. So this proves very interesting. Also, I read a few rumors around last year’s draft that seemed to suggest one of the reasons the Bucs traded up for Roberto was to get ahead of the Bears, who supposedly liked him. So maybe, after all this time, the Bears got their man? Plus they made the Bucs look like idiots in the process?)
I feel bad for the dude. I doubt the same expectations would be there if he was drafted in the 4th or lower, like a kicker should be. Of course if he was drafted then and played just as bad, maybe he’d still get cut and we’d just care less. I certainly wouldn’t be making comics about a 5th round kicker who didn’t do anything. But a 2nd round hype kicker? That’s hilarious! At this point he’s probably the most featured kicker in the comic, and I’ve drawn what, 4 comics about him?
I guess good on the Bucs for recognizing they made an oopsie drafting a kicker too high. I don’t think anyone who defended the pick at the time can stand by it at this point. Kickers just aren’t inherently valuable enough to draft that high. Even if Roberto Aguayo had panned out and become great, he still never would have been worth a 2nd round trade up simply due to the value of the position relative to others in the draft. There isn’t much range between the best kicker and the worst kicker. There is a huge range between the best QB and the worst, or the best Left Tackle and the worst, and in the second round your chances of nailing one of those QBs or LTs on the high end of their spectrum is still reasonably high. Don’t waste that pick on a position that, even if they are great, can’t make as big a difference at their position as one of those other positions can. Wait till the later rounds, when getting a guaranteed player is very low, because then drafting a kicker will get you something of decent value even if it’s not a good kicker. Roberto Aguayo, for all his misses, still won that Panthers game for the Bucs. Even bad kickers get you something, and good kickers are just…good kickers.
It doesn’t say much for the value of kickers if after one bad season you are more than willing to jettison a 2nd round draft pick that you traded up for. If not giving a kicker more than a single season (and he wasn’t historically awful as far as I can tell) is perfectly acceptable, it’s not a position you need to be spending 2nd round picks on.
I should have seen it coming, that pun I mean.
Damn, I forgot to change the screen name back.
With that said, teams should think twice before wasting a draft pick to draft a kicker. I mean even third round would be pushing it even if the guy becomes an All-Pro since there are teams who can get an adequate enough kicker via undrafted free agency.
Guess some teams tends to be desperate now and then. That or they want to be edgy.
Slightly annoyed you didn’t use the Buccaneers’ normal number font.
I loved the perpetually terrible Bucs when I was a kid, they were far and away my favorite team back then. So seeing them screw up like this makes me wince a bit, but it also makes me nostalgic for a time when I was excited to get a Donald Igwebuike or Randy Grimes in a pack of football cards.
Aguayo will hopefully wind up in a better place than Russell Erxlaben…
Someone will probably pick him up before the season ends. It sucks because Aguayo seemed to have the leg strength from what I’ve seen. Maybe he’ll wind up as a kickoff specialist, like what the Bills had the past few years.
Speaking of the Bills, still can’t believe they traded both Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby away. I have mixed feelings about those trades
This event reminded me of a little discussion I had months ago, on a different forum. Not necessarily because of just Aguayo himself, but because of the discussions about kickers and draft position he sparked in general. That time, I asked the people there the following question:
“Say we have this phenom kicker in the draft. His accuracy isn’t anything special(about what you’d expect from an NFL kicker), but his range is monstrous. This guy kicks 75-yard field goals quite consistently(with about 65-70% accuracy), and his personal best is accomplishing something crazy, like 93 yards. What would be the right spot for this guy to be drafted?”
The general consensus was that this freak of nature was well worth 3rd round and above, with some pushing for 1st round and even 1st overall pick. Of course, there were also some people who scoffed and said ‘Meh, he’s still just a kicker with some extra range, which doesn’t help since failure at that range guarantees a field goal at minimum for the opponent. Wouldn’t waste anything above a 5th-rounder on him’ and ‘Doesn’t matter, he’s a kicker, so UDFA. The opportunity cost of not improving either offense or defense is too big’.
Granted, that forum was a bit amateur in terms of football. I guess the people here might be more invested in football and thus might offer some newer insights.
What do you think? Where should this kicker go in the draft, in your opinion?
PS. Dave, you might want to fix that bit about Connor Barth originally being cut from the Bears. I mean, we all know it should be the Bucs since you mention his departure made room for Aguayo, but still 🙂
Interesting scenario, but I don’t think a kicker like that would help your team much. How often would attempting a field goal from your own 25 to about midfield give you a chance to win a game? Probably more often than you’d think, but if your team was any good, you wouldn’t want it to come down to that.
Throughout the course of the game, I don’t think you’d want to attempt many field goals at around your own 45 with a 1 in 3 chance you’re going to miss and give your opponent a short field.
I don’t think this kicker should have any value above the 5th round. In general, it’s better to be highly accurate from a standard “long range” than it is to be of average accuracy with an incredibly long range.
But then again, some team would decide to be stupid about it and draft him early, like the Bucs did with Aguayo, or the Raiders did with Seabass. (maybe it’s just a pirate team thing?)
Rough call, real rough call. As a Lions fan, watching a terrible rotating wheel of kickers lose games in 2014 based on inability to make routine kicks, I probably value kickers a bit higher than most. Even so, the opportunity cost argument is a valid one. Had the Lions been a better team, even with the same kicker(s), they wouldn’t have needed FGs to win those games. It’s difficult to valuate a kicker when they only touch the ball on scoring attempts. I also look back fondly on the Lions selection of Jason Hanson, a second round draft pick who not only stabilized the position for over two decades, but was among the best kickers in the league for that entire time (after his first year, he kinda sucked in year one). Hanson, in my opinion, was a great selection in the second round. However, no rational person would have “20+ year starter” in their scouting report of a player.
I would probably settle on the 4th round being the earliest I would draft a generational talent at kicker. A vast majority of fourth round picks are already projects who rarely operate in more than a “special teams” capacity their first couple years, anyway. The kicker could provide an immediate upgrade to the team that most fourth round players don’t offer. Earlier than that are often at least rotational players who could provide more first year impact.
I will say, the only time a kicker should be lining up an attempt from 75 yards out is at the very end of the game or the very end of the half. I’d be more interesting in accuracy from 40-55 yards.
538 took a shot at answering a question like this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-a-tale-of-two-quarterbacks-struggling-against-the-buffalo-bills/
They consider a kicker being automatic up to a certain distance, and then a regular kicker after that. Not exactly realistic (a kicker who is automatic at 50 yards is probably much better than a regular kicker at 60 yards).
To use your example: A kicker that’s hitting 65%-70% of 75-yard kicks is probably automatic from 45 yards. A kicker who hits 45 yarders automatically and is a regular kicker for greater than 45 yards is worth an extra 2 points per game. Fudge in that he can hit 75-yarders about 2/3of the time, and I’d say this guy is good for an extra 5 or 6 points per game compared to a regular kicker. That seems like it’d be worth a 2nd round pick or so.
As Dave pointed out, positional value in the draft is about marginal value, not absolute value. That theoretical monster leg still wouldn’t have enough value over a UDFA to go higher than the sixth round.
If they’re comfortable enough with shooting people out of cannons with no lawsuits then sign me up for one hell of an experience
LIFE LESSON: DON’T DRAFT KICKERS
couldn’t agree more
mandatory 2pt conversion
also has to be a play-action
Especially in third round or higher. Even 5th round is pushing it.
From one failed tampa kicker, to a long time arena
kicker succeeding (by AFL standards) a 91% accuracy in the playoffs. Full summary (with a playlist of me watching the game live) on Saturday.
Also, Aguayo should have landed on a bear.