Smokescreen Season Is Back
Friendly reminder that we have entered the bullshit report phase of the year and that we should trust nothing that comes out about any team’s relationship or thoughts to any prospect.
Every year, especially years with several strong QB prospects, fall victim to this nonsense. Prospect grading and profiles are one thing. Any report from a draft scout who gives their thoughts on Caleb or Maye or whoever is probably not lying about their analysis. Well, probably. They may be playing the attention game and going for clicks but generally I think that tends to happen closer to the draft when everyone is bored and has run out of stuff to say. This is NFL combine time, and right now tends to be a time of genuine reaction and evaluation.So if you see a guy saying Caleb is a flawed prospect with bad footwork or whatever they are probably being honest even if you disagree. The barrier to being an amateur draft scout is remarkably low and since everyone gets most things pretty wrong even at the professional level who cares. The worst pushback you’ll get is some trolls who always mention your misses in your comments. Small price to pay if you enjoy scouting.
But reports about what “teams” are feeling about a guy, or anonymous reports of players flaws or whatnot, I wouldn’t trust a single damn one of them. The discourse around Caleb has already been insufferable. Some of these reports are probably true, but this is the chess game of the draft that happens every year. Reporters become mouthpieces for team executives trying to hide intentions. We watch corporate politics and sabotage in real time, mostly by people who don’t really change much in the end. Caleb is going #1 overall, and every report that talks about his problems can easily be seen as potential attempts by other teams to get his draft stock to fall. I honestly don’t know if any of this shit works. I’m sure some of it does. So many people seemed to buy into the reports of San Francisco trading up to #3 several years ago for Mac Jones and that ended up being for Trey Lance (man, they probably should have actually taken Mac Jones).
Every draft I remember with a very obvious “generational” QB prospect in it has had bullshit reports of the second-overall guy actually being the pick for as long as the process went along. Andrew Luck was never going to be picked second to Robert Griffin, but YOU NEVER KNOW and MAYBE THE COLTS ARE LOOKING AT HIM. Trevor Lawrence might not be as good as Justin Fields and then later maybe Zach Wilson could be the top guy after all! Nope, it was never anyone but Trevor and you’d be an idiot to buy any of those reports. Drake Maye is not going 1st. If I were a betting man I’d stake a significant amount of money on Caleb going #1 overall. The real question will be who holds that pick on draft night. The Commanders are being rumored to want that #1 pick for Kingsbury very badly and that is a report I buy (because duh, why wouldn’t they want him?). If they can lower his draft stock to some degree, it makes the deal cheaper for them.
Happy draft season friends. If you are a scout and enjoy that sort of thing, I wish you a happy time. If you aren’t into that, I suggest you go outside and come back with a week to go to see where things have ended up. As for me, I have somehow dug myself a hole where I have to pay attention to all of this stuff I don’t even like for two months because I’m dedicated to making all of you giggle a few times a week, so you better appreciate me.
Happy first appearance in the Draw Play for Caleb Williams! Happy like 500th time I’ve done a comic with a guy at a podium!
Can we talk about how Trevor Lawrence may be the third best QB in his division this year? CJ Stroud is a superstar already whereas Anthony Richardson looked really good and can be a star if he remains injury-free. Lawrence has been slightly above average in his NFL career.
I can get behind thinking CJ Stroud is already better, but I feel like you’re jumping the gun with Anthony Richardson. He’s only got 2 full games under his belt and the Colts didn’t really ask him to much in the passing department in either of them.
The BS reports are probably about to ramp up tenfold now that all of the consensus top 3 QB prospects opted out of participating at the Combine. I’m already seeing articles and rumors about JJ McCarthy being a potential top 3 pick because he was the best QB to actually do any drills.
You beat me to the punch! All I saw post-Combine was how incredible JJ McCarthy looked and how he’s now a lock to go top-10 after being in like the 20s most of the season. It’s just so transparent what is happening, and it happens with QBs EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. Malik Willis got a lot of steam, especially after showing off his arm, but he (deservedly) dropped to the 3rd round. Will Levis got a lot of love post-combine, but fell to the 2nd.
I don’t know if JJ is going to be a good QB or not, but he’s clearly the candidate who’s been selected as the “riser” and I have no doubt we’ll now see Mock Drafts with him jumping Daniels and maybe even Maye as the draft machine turns. I will not be surprised at all if/when he’s actually drafted in the high teens/low-20’s.
The discourse surrounding JJ McCarthy has been so bizarre. He’s either the worst QB in the draft or the most underrated QB prospect of all time depending on who you talk to and it feels like there’s weird spotlight on him since he’s the first NFL-level QB to play at Michigan since… Chad Henne(?), if not Tom Brady, and he’s led them to success that the program has not seen in nearly 30 years. Ideally, he should be taken as a late 1st rounder, if not in the high 2nd, but we’re going to see endless Mocks of teams reaching on him as high as Pick #3 because of the Combine.
I doubt anyone actually tries to reach on him that high, but I could see someone taking him with a Top 15 pick. No clue how he’ll fare in the pros, though.
Mark my words, the GM that drafts McCarthy in the top 15 will get fired. He’s not bad, but people overrate him so hard. He was a good game manager at Michigan, being highly accurate and not turning the ball over, but he never took over games. He has such a high winning percentage because of a steady running game that opened up play-action and the vaunted Michigan Defense. He is at BEST a high-level backup.
You gave Dan Quinn hair, weird. He is a founding member of the thumb coach club in Draw Play lore lol. As for the draft I stopped putting any of my concerns in it anymore, it will be what it will be and in 3 years we will know if it was an ok draft or not.
I’ll take “Things I Wouldn’t Have Noticed But Now That You’ve Drawn Attention To Them I Can’t Look Away” for $500, Alex.
That’s why I wrote “may,” as we will all see how Richardson does year 2. But if he does outperform Lawrence in 24, the Lawrence hype train may crash.
It’s kinda redundant because Lawrence could go on to be a good QB for many years ala Cousins, but that #1 pick moniker is an albatross.
This take is not it man. By your logic I could say that Jared Goff may be the 3rd best QB in his division because of who the Bears may draft and who the Vikings may sign.
I AGREE HE SHOULD BE 9TH OVERALL NOTHING ELSE
This is such an interesting class of QBs this year and all of the discourse around it is actually pretty intriguing. Like it seems like there’s probably at least five guys who could have been the first one off the board in any other year, but at the same time, there’s only maybe three that are legitimately being discussed as the ones who. will work out at all as starters. Penix and Nix are both great in their own ways, but are essentially being relegated to the 2nd round because of age or injury history (both in the case of Penix), JJ is picking up steam but not one fanbase out there actually wants him in the first, and I haven’t even heard Jordan Travis’s name at all in the past few weeks despite him probably having been a heisman finalist had it not been for the horrific leg injury which is also probably weighing his stock down heavily.
As a Giants fan, it’s painful to think about the fact that, despite having the 6 pick, there’s a very good chance that the three top QB prospects and the two top WR prospects will likely be gone before they even have a chance to pick.